Weather and global warming

The weather makers and global warming

“The spotlight thus falls on political elites, administrative mandarins, and scientific

advisors. Here is their genuine opportunity ,not just to act with political maturity but to

take a giant leap on behalf of humanity. Can they break with all the vested interests ,the

inertial forces, the conventional wisdoms, which are the historical lot of those in power

,even while these have now lost all value ? Through some Damascene vision might they

at this late hour provide not only redemption for themselves ,but for the rest of humanity

too ? One thing ,though, is sure: Little time is left.” (Mark Levine and David Cromwell

June 2007 .Preface Surviving climate change .The struggle to avert global

catastrophe. Pluto press 2007)

The major trends that are shaping our future are recognized as the food trends, the energy

and climate trends, economic trends ,transportation trends, health and social trends and

conflict and peace trends. The year 2004 was a record breaker of expansion of world

economy at a 5 % rate and consumption and production of everything from grain to meat

and steel and oil rose to heights. The sudden shift was summed up by the achievement of

China in steel production. The global grain harvest shot up by 8 % and rises in

consumption and change in diet pattern occurred. By this the grain reserves became very

low at the end of the year leaving the year vulnerable to a food shortage and high prices if

the 2005 harvests were hurt by adverse weather. Total carbon emissions and atmospheric

carbon dioxide accelerated and 2004 was the fourth warmest year ever recorded and the

10 warmest years in last 120 years were after 1990.Rise in temperature melted the polar

icecaps, and glaciers .Thinning the ice of arctic is happening and by 2100 the arctic ocean

is predicted to be ice-free. The collapse of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica
causes a rise in sea level. The worlds ecological system is in danger as human forces are

impinging on coral reefs ,tropical forests and other critical natural systems.1/4th of

mammals and ½ of the world’s wetlands are already lost to us. By the 2004 December

Tsunami ,the importance of the preservation of wetlands and the coral reefs which are

key ecosystems of the globe were recognized. The severe damage to wetlands in the

name of development and also of coral reefs are pointed out as reasons for the calamity.

Grain harvest in 2004 was 2049 tons as against 800 tons in 1960.After the declining

Harvests of the five years (in previous 7 yrs)wheat was 11 5 more than the 2003 harvest.

United nations declared the year as international year of the rice. The rice demand always

outpaces its production and it is this one crop which actually gives awareness about a

pending food crisis. Rice is 20 % of the world’s energy supply in calories directly. Wheat

is 19 % and corn 5%.Since demand exceeded production since four consecutive years

china, India and Pakistan(major rice growers)pushed prices higher Global rice stocks

dropped .People are hungry not because of global shortage as such but by the lack of

regional sustenance farming and lack of purchasing power when prices go high. Hunger

kills more than 5 million children each year ,roughly one child every second(pp 22 Vital

signs 2005-2006 world watch institute)

Energy and climate trends:-

1 Fossil fuel use surges

2.Nuclear power rises once more

3.Global wind growth continues

4.solar energy markets booming

5.biofuel use growing rapidly

6 climate change indicators are on the rise. Like CO2 ,heat, glacier melting etc.

Economic trends :-

Global economy continue to grow

World trade rises sharply

Foreign direct investments inflow decline

Weather-related disasters near a record

Steel surging

The inflows of foreign direct investment from 1970-2004 show that there is a general

decline of investment from industrial countries. Is the industrialization a failure ?Or is it

that they are not investing globally?

The foreign direct investment from 1970-2004 (10 yr interval)billion 2003 dollars from

UNCTAD

Year Total Industrial countries Low/middle income countries
1970 50 37 14
1980 108 91 17
1990 271 222 49
2000 1471 1174 297
2004 601 315 286

Weather related disasters on record in 2004:-

105 billion pound economic loss due to natural disasters.Storms,tornados,floods,heat

waves, extreme cold waves.12000 people lost lives. December 2004 earthquake in

Sumatra and subsequent tsunami in Indian ocean sweeped away 280000 people in 11

countries in a matter of few hours and millions left homeless. In summer monsoons of

2004, 2200 people were killed in India, Nepal and Bengladesh.Dakka was submerged

under water for 40 %.China and Caribbean lost 2000 lives in summer floods. In Yangtze

basin 85 % of forest cover was clearcut,14 million people displaced in floods and 4.5

million Ha of cropland destroyed. Rain surged down barren slopes of Haiti and local

forests stripped for fuelwood.From 198 onwards 110 -205 events of severe floods

occurred the world over.Deforestation,erosion,irrigation interfering river drainage ,global

climatic changes and filling of wetlands and fields for construction works etc have all

contributed to this. Southern US and Caribbean was hit by a string of hurricanes in 2004

Charlie alone causing 20 million dollar loss. cyclones in Japan, landslides environmental

disasters were on the record in 2004.The economic loss in 2004 was 104.6 billion 2003

dollars which had a similar figure in 1998 (106.7).


Health and social trends:

Population continue to rise steadily

Number of refugees decline

HIV/AIDS crisis widening worldwide

Cigarette production dropped


Conflict and peace trends:-

Violent conflicts unchanged

Military expenditure surges

Peacekeeping expenditures soar high

Mixed progress on reducing nuclear arsenals

SPECIAL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES

1 Mammals on decline
2.Global ice melting increases
3.Wetlands dry up
4.Forest loss continues
5.Air pollution still big problem

MDG(Millennium development goals) are :-
1.Eradicate poverty and hunger
2.Achieve universal primary education
3.Promote gender equality and empower women
4.Reduce child mortality
5.Improve maternal health
6.combat HIV/AIDS ,malaria and other diseases
7.Ensure environmental sustainability
8.Develop a global partnership for development

In 1903,Sir Edgar Wallace called the atmosphere the great aerial ocean. It protects all

life, connects everything with everything else and has regulated our temperature for 4

billion years. The weather is what we experience every day. Climate is the um of all the

weathers over a certain period for a region or for the planet as a whole. The troposphere

of the earth which is 10 Km in height ,slightly above the Mt Everest, has only a little part

(bottom one third)of breathable air. Beyond that the strato,meso and thermosphere has no

breathable air.The keeling curve of CO2 concentration in ppm atop Mt Launa loa,Hawai

between 1958 -2000 showed a change from slightly less than 315 to over 370 .All these

carbon when it goes from atmosphere reaches carbon sinks ,including you and me, all

living things and ocean,soil,even rocks. That is the earth .The orbit of earth at present is

not very elliptical and there is only 6 % difference between January and July

temperatures. In one lakh years there is an orbital cycle of earth which changes the

intensity of sunrays reaching earth. Another cycle due to tilt on earths axis lasts 42000

years and a third shortest cycle changes in 22000-25000 years due to wobble of earth on

its axis. In this ,the earths axis shifts from pole star to Vega affecting intensity of

seasons. When Vega (Dhanishtaadi) marks true north winters will be terribly cold and

summers scorching hot. This was known through Milanchovich , to western world only

in 1941 .(This was so when Paithamaha wrote Vedangajyothisha in India)With sunspot

cycles of 11 years the earth temperature vary. More the sunspots more is the warming of

earth. But it does not affect the life on earth in dangerous proportions. The present

stratospheric cooling by ozone hole and tropospheric warming by increased greenhouse

gases is mainly manmade disasters due to industrial revolution. Today we face a rate of

change thirty times faster because the living things need time to adjust .Speed is

important as scale when it comes to climate change. For more than 10000 years human

Indian and Mayan calendars which sweeped of the great urban beings have been

deforesting earth. And a great flood in BC 3104 is recorded both in port city in the Rann

of cutch,Dwaraka .And the new cities developed in 3100 in Mesopotamia ,on its southern

end.

Now carbon,oil,solar energy are used indiscriminately and disproportionately which

had lead to the speeding up of the climate change and nine out of ten warmest years ever

recorded occurred since 1990.(pp70.we are the weather makers .The story of global

warming. Tim Flannery Penguin books 2006).

The rise in temperature had started in 1970 itself.1976 and 1998 had two rapid rises. The

1976 one occurred when scientists drilled the oldest coral porites in Mainana in pacific

nation of Kiribati.A shift in jet stream, changes as far as southern Australia and

Galapagos in pacific ocean on equator 1000 kms off south American coast recorded by

national geographic. In 1830 Darwin visited here. In 1977 the native finch perished in

draughts only 180 survived of the 1300.Of them 150 were males and tough competition

for mates in the spring and only the big beaked variety survived.1998 is tied up with El

Nino –La Nina cycle ,a 2-8 year long one which brings climatic changes.

El Niño means the new child, Christ coined by Peruvian fisher folk who noticed warm

currents during Christmas visiting the fishing grounds.La Nina is the new girl child that is

the cooling period in ocean of south America. La Nina phase has winds blowing

westward across pacific pushing warm surface water to coast of Australia and to its

north. Then the cold Humboldt current is able to surface off pacific coast of south

America carrying the nutrients that feed the prolific fishery in the world, the anchovetta.

El nino phase begin with weakening of tropical winds allowing warm surface water to

flow back eastwards overwhelming the Humboldt and releasing humidity to atmosphere

which brings floods to the normally arid Peruvian deserts. Droughts strike Australia and

south east Asia.El nino when severe devastate 2/3 rd of globe with droughts ,floods and

extreme weather.1997-98 was a severe El nino year. As greenhouse gases build up in

atmosphere we will experience persistent El nino like conditions. It is the bird

watchers, nature and animal watchers who have recorded the climate changes first. In

India it has a very long history. In England the first record is between 1736-1947 when a

family recorded the date the first frog and toad croaked on their estate every year .In 1850

no such records are there. Over the last 55 years over the globe the records are strong

.The species are shifting to the pole by an average of 6 KM per decade and retreated up

mountainsides at rate of 6.1 meter per decade .Spring activity has advanced 2.3 days per

decade. These trends accord with scale and direction of temperature increase by

greenhouse gas and is called global fingerprint of climate change.CO2 is driving nature

Polewards with a lash. Tiny marine organisms called copepods,nonmigratory species of

35 varieties of butterflies have changed habitat. The butterflies have perished in the

south. The tropical birds of costa rica low lands in last 20 years moved 18.9KM

northwards. Northern hemisphere seabird lay eggs on average 24 days earlier each

decade .Budding and flowering of plants is 1.4 -3.1 earlier per decade and this denotes

change inspring activity. Spring is warmer than it was 25 years ago. But number of cold

days in winter is unchanged. The winter moths therefore hatch upto 3 weeks before the

oak bear their first leaves, and the caterpillars can survive only 2-3 days without food,

and perish. Those that survive grow fast since no competition for food meaning birds

have less time to find them .Even the remotest rainforests face the threats of global

warming.The sub Atlantic plankton pool is the base of foodchain.They thrive even in

winter under the ice and the krill feed on them and complete their 7 year lifecycle. When

there is krill there is penguin. Since 1976 the krills decreased 40 % per decade. Emperor

penguin is half of what it was 30 years ago.Adelie penguin has declined by 70

%.Antarctic is frozen continent surrounded by immensely rich ocean. Arctic is frozen

ocean surrounded by land. And is home of 4 million people. In Alaska the winters are 2

-3 degree C warmer than 30 yrs ago. The thundra,the collared lemming, the reindeer

,polar beers ,nanuk,ivory gull of Canada all face threat of racial extinction by about

2050.And north polar cryosphere will vanish forever with unknown consequences of

climatic changes, all due to manmade greenhouse effect.

We Indians must know something about the protection of ocean and the coral reefs in it

too. Coral reefs yield 30 billion US dollars each year to people who have no other

resources to live. The citizens of five nations are protected by the fringing coral atolls

which stand between them and the invading seas. Destroying the fringing reefs ,you

destroy all the pacific nations just like bulldozing Holland’s dykes.The biodiversity of the

corals also is destroyed by that action. Corals are marine equivalents of south Africa’s

sand plains with great biodiversity. In 1857 Alfred Russell Wallace described coral

gardens,medusae,fishes and many other in Ambon Harbour and in 1990 none of them

exits. Just effluent ,garbage, butchered remains of animals and goats are described by

Tim Flannery.In 1997-98 El Niño, rain forests of Indonesia burned like never before.

Before that south western Sumatra had rich biodiversity of coral reefs.1997 saw red tide

in Sumatra coast due to minute organisms fed on iron in the smog of the fire. The smog

cloud over south east Asia in 2002 El nino was larger. About the size of US. It cut 10 %

sunlight heated lower atmosphere and ocean.Aqaculture and corals alike are devastated

from Indonesia to south Korea .Recovery is unlikely for these east Asian coral reefs.2004

,scientists visiting Myrmidon reefs off coast of Queensland for the 3 yr survey reported

they looked as if bombed. The reef crest was bleached leaving a forest of dead white

coral. only on deeper slopes did life survive. Before 1930 coral bleaching due to high

ocean temperature was not heard of. In 1970 it was small scale. In 1998 El nino it was

global dying. The great barrier reef was bleached 42 % in 1998 and 18 % suffered

permanent damage.2002 El nino killed 90 % of all reforming corals ,60 % of great

barrier reef was affected .In 2006 cyclone Larry came which destroyed 50000 homes in

Queensland and secured the reef for another year by its cooling effect on ocean water.

The golden frog of central American rain forests in costa rica is an example of loss of

species quoted. In April May alone the males surface and mate with the females. The last

male appeared in May 15th 1989 and no more of the race now exists. He was the first

victim of global warming recorded. We killed it with our reckless use of coal fired

electricity ,huge cars and causing global warming .

The gastric brooding frog of SE Queensland disappeared with in 6 years after its

discovery in 1973 by researchers who wanted to know how the female frog converted the

stomach into a nursery and delivered children through mouth. Amphibians face threat of

extinction by climate as well as by experimental science.

1960 the Sahel disaster of Africa:-This was a marginal rainfall area and regional more

rain and better soil allowing a living through fields and in dry lands a semi nomadic

camel herding life. The famines and droughts were common. And for decades the west

argued that the reason is the people themselves who overgraze the camels, goats and

cattle, gather firewood, destroy the covering vegetation, expose its dark soil and change

its albedo and so on. But all these were proven wrong by painstaking studies in US

between 1930-2000.The human –caused degradation was too small to trigger the climatic

shift. The rise in sea-surface temperatures of Indian ocean increasing greenhouse gases

was the real reason. The Indian ocean is the most rapidly warming ocean in the world and

as it warms the conditions that generate the sahelian monsoon weaken. The rainfall is

less. Food is less. People starved. From arid Africa (which generates ½ of global

dust)particles scatter, absorb light, lower temperature ,carry nutrients to ocean and distant

lands assisting in growth of plants, planktons and increase absorption of CO2.

In SW corner of west Australia rain fell during winter and get 100 cm annually. The

farming is done here. The wheat belt is here. vineyards also have come up. Before the

European settlements the southwest was blanketed in thick vegetation called Kwongan(as

konkan in India).Following rains the kwonkan become a vast wildflower garden and

several species are jammed in a single hectare.1829-1975,the first 149 years of European

settlement people cleared kwonkan for farmlands. From 1976 there is decrease in rainfall

and problems for agricultural economy. In 1960 the farmers with goal of clearing million

acres of kwongan scrub per year bulldozed and found only sterile stretches of sand and

the most unfertile soil underneath the natural vegetatin.The farmers did hydroponic

gardening .Drilled in their wheat, dusted the sterile sand with nutrients waited for the

never failing winter rains to come and water their seeds. By 2004 ,decades after nature

refusing to water, wheat growing shifted westwards replacing dairy farms
.
Winter rainfall has decreased and summer rainfall increased. Before the bulldozing the

vegetation was taking up salt brought by westerlies and every drop from heavens and salt

stayed in xalline form by them. But now ,when summer rains fell the salt from sea creep

up kill everything .The first sign is salty taste impervious sweet creeks. The water became

undrinkable. Streamside vegetation died converting within a decade into salty drains. The

perished farmers faced worst case of dry-land salinity .Neither science nor Government

has given any solutions and damage bill is in billions (pp 117 Tim Flannery)Perth is now

a thirsty city with 1.5 million people ,bankrupt wheat farmers trying to sell their fields

.Less winter rainfalls causes less water in Perth’s catchments Since 1975 rain falls in light

showers that soak into the soil and do not reach the dams at all. Now the Government is

planning to squeeze out groundwater from Gnangara mound destroying its biodiversity

also ,and to lay a desalination plant at cost of Australian dollar 350 million to suck ocean

water and remove saline from it. All the cities in Australia are facing water crisis of

some sort. The west coast of America also has water problems.

Most powerful El nino of 1997-98 the most powerful fatal hurricane in 200 years ,the

hottest and deadliest European summer on record(2003) the first south Atlantic hurricane

ever*(2002)unprecedented flooding in Mumbai (2005)worst storm season in US ,most

economically devastating hurricane Katrina (2005)and Monica ,the most powerful

cyclone ever recorded in Australia(2006) and Tsunami(2004) are eye-openers for

us. Warm water warm air and it carry extra heat .30 degree C air hold four times as much

hurricane fuel as air at 10 degree C.Since 1950’s the hurricanes have changed their

tracks. The example is the frequency of typhoons ravaging East China and Philippines

sea has decreased since 1976 but number increased in south China sea.

In Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal there were fewer typhoons which is good for millions

living near sea level in these regins.Dramatic decrease in number of cyclones in

subantartic ocean south of latitude 40 but a modest increase in Antarctic ocean is

seen.1996.97.98 consecutively US had hurricanes. In 1780 there was a great hurricane

which was severe. In 2004 storms returned .4 major tropical storms crossed Florida in

quick succession.

Katrina-Florida,Gulf of Mexico, New Orleans

Rita-Texas

Started as thunderstorms in warm waters off Bahamas, became tropical storm ,a group of

thunderstorms that circled until it developed a vortex.

In UK the recording of climate as records started in 1660, about 60 years after they had

contact with Indian subcontinent and its trade and commerce based on sea routes and

crop systems.1990’s was the warmest decade after that records began. The two nations

most disadvantaged by climate change are US and Australia.

In India, apart from Gujarat and Western Orissa there is less drought than 25 years

ago. Only NW India experiences heatwaves.2005 saw record monsoon rains and storms

in Mumbai and surrounding regions which brought devastating floods and damaged

offshore Mumbai high gas field.

Rising sea level.

2/3 people on earth live within 80 KMs of the coast. Even a modest rise of sea level

would be disastrous from Manhattan to Bay of Bengal. The Asian tsunami of 2004 gives

an indication of this. Netherlands is planning construction of superdykes ,Thames barrier

is being strengthened for prevention of further damages by such catastrophe. In

Bangladesh 1 million live within one meter of sealevel.( An island over which west

Bengal and Bangladesh were having problems of ownership has actually disappeared this

year).Thermal expansion of ocean, glacier ice melting lead to rise in

sealevels.Climatology is a science of prediction .From 2003 the Hadley center for climate

prediction is set up in England. Half of the energy generated after the world war 2 till

date since Industrial revolution has been consumed in last 20 years by human activity.

And it is too late to alter this situation in our world. But we have time still to avoid

disaster and reduce probability of dangerous climatic upheavals and its effects.

We can limit the carbon dioxide emission. protect nature,trees,biodiversity,water

resources, fields and forests with wild life and resort to more simpler and traditional

lifestyles to reduce consumption of energy .This is what Gandhiji was advocating all

along as a visionary .

Methane release from seashoreIce crystals trap molecules of methane.Clathrates(Latin-

caged) is the name for this ice which burns and contain gas under high pressure. When

brought to surface these burn ignited. There is massive deposits of this in the seabed.368

trillion cubic meters of natural gas is recoverable in the world. The ocean floor has

10000-42000 trillion cubic meters compared to this energy. If this is touched and released

colossal bursts of methane energy will happen. The entire planet will be destroyed and all

species extinct. That will be the end of civilization .Australia, the most urbanized nation

on earth is having climate variations due to high energy consumption of its cities. The

people all over and scientists all over warn about these consequences yet our local

administrators are ready to explore ocean floor, drill it for treasures, bulldozer it for

destroying old sethus under it or for getting oil and gas below it (as in Kochin). The

methane energy of the caged pressurized variant is lurking below to devour everything in

a catastrophic final deluge and man is foolish and selfish not to see this danger even after

predictions by climatic experts.

Ozone is the earth’s sunscreen shielding us from 95 % of UV radiations. In 1928

industrial chemists invented HFCs for refrigeration, propellants in spraycans,in

airconditioning units.1985 the use of it was 1.8 million tons. They increased chlorine

levels five times the previous levels. The hole it punched in ozone layer south of 40

degree latitude exposed to them to skin cancer (southern chile,Argentina,Tasmania,south

island of New Zealand)Even near the equator the chances of skin cancer increased.25

years ago chance of getting melanoma was 1/250.Today it is 1/84 due to ozone

depletion. Immune system and eyes are damaged by UV rays. Early cataract can occur

.1987 Montreal protocol addressed the global pollution problem successfully. In 1997 the

Kyoto protocol aimed at reduction of co2 emission by 5 %.But four nations failed to

ratify it, including USA and Australia. Because supplying energy was profitable.

Emissions trading creates a new currency called carbon dollar. Australia had the highest

per capita greenhouse emission of any industrialized country ,25 % higher than USA.At

present the Kyoto protocol is the only international treaty to combat climate change.

Can we find solutions to problem of global warming while continuing to use fossil fuels?

Carbon is locked in coal for hundreds and millions of years and will remain there for

more millions more if we refuse to dig it up, just for the sake of profits.

How to solve ?

Wind power and turbines is used by Denmark .In China wind farms contribute to global

electricity grid.3000 megawatt of wind power is enough to power a small city. Solar hot

water, thermal and photovoltaic cells is another alternative suggested. The average home

requires only 1.4 kilowatts of power to run a photovoltaic cell .It operates best in summer

and one need generate only what one needs. Japan is using this. Sun is a nuclear power at

a distance. Earth based nuclear power is an alternative choice .From 2004 May the world

is considering this .It does not emit carbon dioxide. India has reactors under

construction. China also is seriously considering this option. Geothermal reservoirs of

molten mantle of earth is suggested by some. The decarbonizing the grid is decentralizing

power and empowering individuals.

We need not wait for the govt but can start doing it at home.

Use solar energy.

Buy a hybrid fuel car.

Select a aircraft that fly lower so that co2 consumption is less (4%) and average flight

time over Europe vary less than a minute.

If we can cut our personal emission by 70 % ,the schools,companies,farms etc can also do

that at a higher level

Start a movement in the locality

Use handmade /herbal/natural things

Use organic manure and protect the livestock

And many others depending upon the region located.

Use biofuel for energy needs .Biofuels are derived from biomass ,that is living

organisms, and metabolic products. Like hay,corn,plant leaves,grass,dung and urine of

animals etc.They are better than fossil fuels(coal,oil,gas) because burning biofuel does

not increase the carbon dioxide in atmosphere. The slash-burn agriculture and the

bioproducts of domestic animals for energy was thus a very scientific protective method

which Indians used for millennia. Liquid biofuel is the ethanol. Level of carbon dioxide

have increased from 280 to 385 ppmv since 1750,which is 37 % and this is due to

burning of fossil fuels and still people are drilling oceans to get fossil fuel .While I write

this Arabian sea is being drilled for it at Cochin and no one thinks that we are digging

our own grave in two ways by disturbing the depths of that ocean .Most of Kerala’s

coastlands are below sea level and at or slightly above sea level.

Another thing we can do is protect our tree and grow more forests and trees .

My health village scheme (Music therapy in education, management and administration

Roadworthy publications 2008) is intended for the beginning of it at a local level.

Planting nutritious fruit trees of the local varieties in each home and school and roadside

and helping forestation and protection of biodiversity by social co-operation etc are

possible by us without any Government help. Only when it is a policy decision we need

approach a politician/Government agency for help. Self help is the best help.

In 100 ways to change the world Johan Tell says call the politician as first and last (1 and

100).The reason is ,we have no power to make policies and we can say that such and such

are the problems and such and such policies would help the nation. If he is committed

and if what you point out is for the benefit of all your ideas may be put into policy

decisions and you can help the world. That is the first .If even after several calls and

requests for help ,he doesn’t heed ,the 100th (the last)call is to tell him that we are

withdrawing our support and vote for you and that will do the trick.( 100 ways to save the

world. Johan Tell. Bonnier books 2007)

The deforestation had been due to the following reasons in Europe.

1cattle ranching because of Europe’s appetite for processed meat.

2.Activity of farmers encouraged by state to settle in forestlands and the slash and burn

agriculture.

3.fires,mining,road and railway construction

4.logging ,legal and illegal

5.large scale commercial agriculture as livestock food sources and estates etc which are

monocultures and the biodiverse forests are destroyed for this economic activity which is

short-lived.

About 117000 sq KM of rainforest is destroyed each year and rainforest cover on globe is

now only 5 % and the carbon dioxide level is more because of this.

The CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions of each country is assessed.USA is the first and

the worst polluter .Second is China and third is EU.The order is as follows with India in

5th place.

USA

China

EU

Russia

India

Japan

Germany

Brazil

Canada

Uk

Greenhouse gas emission including land use change is as follows:

USA

EU

China

Indonesia

Brazil

Russian federation

India

Japan

Germany

Malayasia

(UK is 13th)

So all of share the responsibility for killing our own earth and our own life on it.

The warming of climate ,the global rise in sea level and co2 increase etc are more after

1950 and scientists have found that man and his greed alone is responsible for this.

Sealevel rising

IPCC third assessment report predicted that by 2100 the rise will by 9-28 cms .NASA

reports a sea level rise on average 3 mm every year between 1993 and 2005.That is 3.6

cms over 12 years. In 1961-2003 over 43 yrs the rise was only 7.46 cms .Oceans rise

when there is thermal expansion. Warm water takes more space. second reason is melting

of ice and glacier by global warming. The third cause is reduction in salinity as more

freshwater added by melting ice. Freshwater is less dense and takes more space than

salinewater.Apart from the entire coast of kerala the other major cities endangered by

rising sea level Are

Tokyo

Shanghai

Hongkong

Mumbai

Calcutta

Buenos Aires

St Petersburg

New York

Miami

London

Many small islands in Indian and Pacific ocean ,like the Maldives, Carteret island in

Pacific (which will be the first to be lost)By 2015 this island with its 2500 inhabitants

will be lost forever is the prediction(pp96 The A-Z of global warming Simon J

Rosser.Schmaall world publishing 1988).

How do you think the Indian astronomers knew the cyclical nature of climate and the

great world cycles of yuga ,kalpa etc? Simply by experience and observation and

deduction they have known the eccentricity of earths orbit around sun and the perihelion

at Makaram 1st and aphelion on Karkitakam 1st.(Now the West place it on 3rd January and

4th July based on the region of Greenwich)The earth is close to sun in summer of

southern hemisphere and winter in northern hemisphere. It is farthest from sun when the

northern hemisphere has its summer and southern has its winter. The tilt of earths axis

between 22.1 to 24.5 degree (currently 23.5) on its orbital plane cause cycle of 40000

years .Now the tilt is becoming more upright from 23.5 to 22.1 and there is a climate

change. The tilt causes the seasons tilt greater, severe warmer summer and cooler winters.

Less tilt, cooler summer and milder winter When cooler summers happen ice mass

formed. Ice has reflective surface and reflects sun’s energy back to space keeping

temperatures in poles cool. If the Greenland ice melts completely the sea level will raise

by 4.5 to 6 meters .Precession of equinox is the earths wobble around its axis and has a

cycle of 26000 yrs.The perihelion and aphelion then changes completely. Now the

southern hemisphere is tilted towards sun at its perihelion (Makaram or Utharaayana)but

by 26000 years this will reverse. This is called ayanaamsa by Indian astronomers and

precision of equinox by the west.

The ocean thermo hyaline circulation(OTH) is the ocean conveyor belt ,meridianal

overturning circulation(MOC) and these are terms used for a system of large currents that

bring warmer water from equator to northern hemisphere and returns colder water back to

equator. It depends both on temperature and the salt and hence the name. London is 51

.30 degree north of equator as Saskatoon in Canada. Saskatoon is covered by ice about 5

months of year during winter. Glasgow and Hudson bay in Canada are in same

latitude, and the moderate climate of Europe is maintained by the warm drifts from

equator. The transport of ocean nutrients for marine life also is due to OTH.OTH drives

the north Atlantic drift while winds drive the gulf stream .(That is why people around the

equator knew the monsoon and the ocean currents and the west did not know it)..The

currents are affected by the global warming as it has slowed by 30 % though it is within

natural variability of changes.

Earth’s population growth

Current 6,500,000,000

20 yrs ago 4,000,000,000

BY 2050 expected 9,000,000,000

This contribute to global warming, energy needs, food consumption, more of fossil fuel

pollution, a vicious cycle .Water, food and climate ,will be problems for the entire life on

earth.

Billions of people in 1830 was 1.

1930. 2

1960 it was 3,

1975 became 4.

1987 5

2007 6.5

By 2050 expected 9.(credit population institute figures)

Unless we use renewable energy to substitute the fossil fuel we may not be able to break

the vicious circle,

The renewable energy is that can be regenerated

1.solar power(Akkaasa)

2.wind power(Vaayu)

3.hydropower(aapas) which includes hydroelectric, tidal and wave powers

4.geothermal(agni) from heat of earth.

5.biomass (prithwi)

These are the five elemental powers which can be regenerated by recycling.

Nuclear power does not produce greenhouse gases .Therefore some nations are thinking

about it as alternative.

The ancient astronomers of India were aware of a 11 yr cycle of sun and an increased

magnetic and sunspot activity called the ucha or maximum of the sun and then a manda

or minimum period of quiescence. With sunspots the sun activity is maximum .The last

solar maximum was in 2000-2002.Helioseismology is an ultrasound technique for the

sun’s body. The NASA with it predicted the suns next solar cycle to begin in 2007 -2008

and 30-50 % increase than the current cycle with a peak in 2012 (cycle 24).The solar

radiation is not the reason for global warming but anthropogenic forces(manmade)are the

cause has been proved. Temperatures of last 1000 years remaining constant and from

1800 a sharp upward rise is the evidence for it. The 1990’s were the warmest decade and

1998 the warmest year. For last 150 years man has created this problem.

2005 and 2007 were hottest like 1998,and even more and 2002.2003,2006 were very hot.

Global warming increases mosquitoes, pathogens like malaria and mosquitoes can

survive in a wide area and higher altitudes with warm temperatures. A population of 40-

60000000 in Africa will be prone to vector-transmitted malaria with a temperature rise of

2 centigrade.

Weather changes like heatwaves,floods,droughts and hurricanes are due to global

warming. In 2003 before tsunami Europe had heat wave that killed 35000 people.15000

were in Paris alone. August 2007 terrible fires raged Greece. June 2007 floods and rains

in north of England happened .Danube, Rhine and Rhone overflowed. Increased rain in

northern hemisphere and reduced rain in the tropics and subtropics happened.

Droughts in Australia,USA,(California)and Mississippi are having effects of

drought. May 2007 saw drought in Australia .Queensland and Sydney are under threat.

A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system that has a cyclonic surface wind circulation. If

it occurs in North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific ocean it is called a hurricane. In

Northwest Pacific, to the east of 160 degree longitude it is called a typhoon. It is called a

cyclone in Southwest Pacific ocean and North and Southwest Indian ocean. Data from

1851 is available and from 1944 are with aircraft monitoring and from 1970 it is with

satellites. There were five or more hurricanes over four years in 1950s ,three different

years in 1960s,and 1990s and over two years till 2000,but 2004 saw six major hurricanes

and 2005 saw seven.2006 was quieter with two major hurricanes.2007 had 13-16 named

storms,7-9 hurricanes ,3-5 major hurricanes.

The most active was 2005.28 named storms ,15 were hurricanes,7 of them major. This

beat record of 1969 with 12 hurricanes ,5 of which were major. In 1950 eleven hurricanes

,eight of which were major.50s 60s and 90s were active hurricane periods.1995-1999 a

record thirty-three hurricanes recorded.1991-1994 was the quietest after the 1940s.Atlantic

hurricanes alternates between quiet and active period of activity over 20-25 yr

periods. Typhoons increased since 1980s after a decrease in activity from 1960-80.The

activity cycle is thus similar to Atlantic hurricanes. When there is ocean warming

hurricanes become stronger. The destructive power of hurricanes has increased since mid

1970s when there was rapid increase in the global ocean and land temperatures. Just after

the tsunami of 2004 there had been a record year of hurricanes in North Atlantic with 27

named storms ,7 major, and four reaching category five status.

Category 5 storms of 2005:-

Emily hit Mexico in 18th July 2005

Katrina developed in August and made landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi ,of category

3 strength

Rita developed in September 2005 ,close to Florida on 20th,causing storm-force winds

upto 76 mph on Key west. It strengthened and tracked to Mexico and reached category

status with 175 mph

Wilma arrived in October and produced 60 inches rain passing over Yucatan peninsula in

Mexico and made landfall in Florida as category 3 storm

In 2007 the hurricane Dean damaged Jamaica as it made its way to Mexico.

We have altered the weather and water cycles and caused the extinction of biodiversity

on face of earth and are heading for our own extinction by own deeds.

Animals under threat are the polar bear, sea turtles,whales,giant panda,orang-

utan,elephant,tigers,birds of different varieties,pikas a small hamster sized

flower gathering mammal in Alpines of western USA ,SW Canada and Asia.varietes of

frogs including the golden frog of costa Rica,penguins,coral reefs with several symbiotic

organisms depending upon them. We will soon have the same fate as these forms of life.

What we can do?

1.turn off all electrical appliances when they are not in use-the phone

chargers,TV,DVD,which take 10 -60% of normal power even when in standby. Make sure

that the plugs are easily accessible to turn off easily.

2.Standby buster and energy tracker. Turn off the appliance with remote handset .The

equipment functions via radio waves and have a playback time of 6 months. It measures

your energy consumption and allow you to monitor the power consumption.

3.Buy energy –efficient appliances Don’t keep the fridge near a cooker so that it takes

more energy to keep cool.

4.Turn off lights when it is not needed.

5.Boil water that is just enough for use.

6.Turn down household thermostat down 1 degree centigrade to reduce carbon blueprint

and to save money

7.Use solar energy whenever possible

8.Insulate properly to prevent heat loss

9.Take a shower .It use less energy than a bath in bathtub

10.Recycle rubbish to reduce energy requirements. Like the

wastes,paper,cardboard,tin,aluminium cans ,glass bottles and jars and plastic cans .UK is

doing this (www.recyclenow.com)

11.Use green energy.

12.carbon free travel and holiday.(vacation)

Reduce the carbon dioxide emission offsets to zero.

The golden standard of a Clean development mechanism(CDM) is the objectives of the

Kyoto protocol. Keep the planet clean,pure,lessen the greenhouse gases, and keep it cool

and safe for life to continue as before. In the book Flexibility in climate policy Tim

Jackson, Katie beg and Stuart Parkinson has described how to make the Kyoto

mechanisms work the joint implementation(JI) its objectives ,social and environmental

aspects ,methodology and case study research. The many project case studies using

biomass and wind energy are interesting and we should be thinking in those lines and

using less of fossil fuels. This is the only way to do away with the havoc caused by the

Industrial revolution on the globe in such a short period.

Conflict scenario from 2010-2030 anticipated –Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall (Oct

2003)
Asia 2010
Border skirmishes and conflicts in Bangladesh,India,China as mass migration occur towards Burma.
2012.regional instability leads Japan to develop force projection capability. USA 2010.
Disagreement with Canada &Mexico over water increase tension.


2012. flood of refugees to southeast US & Mexico from Caribbean islands.
2015
Strategic agreement between Japan& Russia for Siberia &Sakhalin energy resources 2015
European migration to US
2016.conflict with European countries over fishing rights
2018
China intervenes in Kazakhstan to protect pipelines regularly disrupted by rebels 2018
Securing North America ,US forms integrated security alliance with Canada and Mexico


2020
Department of defense manages borders & refugee from Caribbean & Europe




In Europe they reported migration from ``Holland &Germany to Italy &Spain by 2020

and by 2007 itself the low-lying coastal areas of Holland are being evacuated due to

violent storms. Melting of Himalayan glaciers have relocated Tibetans. The rising

sea levels & floods people are migrating. By change in the THC the northern latitudes

including UK will become colder drier and akin to Siberia. Deaths from war, famine

,weather related disasters are predicted by the Pentagon report of Schwartz and

Randall. Riots of internal conflicts in India, South Africa, Indonesia : Elsewhere

Countries exploiting resources of others to feed and care for their own populations

,conflict over water resource in Nile,Danube,Amazon basins,USA &Europe will be

mighty fortresses barring entry to millions of starving people ,Scandinavians will move

south. Africans will move to south Europe. China’s huge population and food needs will

make it more vulnerable.Bengladesa will be uninhabitable due to rising sea level which

will contaminate inland water supplies.( On 25th May 2009 when Aila struck kolkata

and Ganga swelled with its tributaries in sunder bans breaking embankments in 100

spots, and 24 pargannas bore the brunt ,and 100 irrigation dams smashed ,inundating

scores of villages at least some might have remembered this prediction!).When fossil

fuel is dangerous to human life on earth, and hydroelectric power is destroyed by lack of

water and destruction of dam reservoirs people think of other measures of energy

sources. The Pentagon report therefore says that Israel,china,India,Pakistan will be

ready to use nuclear arsenals and Japan, south Korea, Egypt and Germany ,in addition to

Iran and north Korea will develop nuclear capability.

The interesting part is that this is not a climatic prediction, but the impact or effects of

climatic changes on various parts of the globe on a regional basis.So,what was wrong in

Varahamihira and his predecessors giving this type of predictions to rulers and people to

be on the look out for problems and solve them before they came ?The west is gradually

adopting the ways of the ancient east, because only now have they got the scientific

knowledge of the weather, of the seas and its relation to human activity.

The role of eclipses and earthquakes due to expansion of water bodies during eclipses

were predicted by Indian astronomers. If we look at the following figures you can see

how the major disasters of earthquakes wiping away populations had occurred on either

new or full moon days.

2001 Gujarat earthquake killing 20000 people on new moon day

Dec 26 in 2004 the famous tsunami on a full moon day.

26th September Japan kurile island earthquake on new moon day.

Dec 26th 2003 new moon day Iran earthquake kills 30000 people.

The European travels to India in 15th to 16th century and the events thereafter was their

study period of the human behavior and knowledge of sciences .It took nearly 400 years

for them to accept it, but by that time, they had altered the entire global weather by the

greed for more power and we have to face the consequences of what we call the great

industrial revolution. We have enjoyed its good effects so far. Now we have to suffer the

bad effects too. For surviving the climatic changes and to avert the catastrophe of

manmade changes to the weather We have to

1 understand the problem of the gravity of the human-made climate change

2.We have to break out of the present impasse.

We include all of us, and the policy makers, opinion formers, the rich, powerful and

influential in corporate business ,academic and scientific institutions and leading

nongovernmental institutions .

I am a music lover. Music integrates everything. And intelligent time measure and design

is part of music, medicine and astronomy all of which I have learnt.Music is creatively

alive and is very precise about counting. Timing and tuning to shared reference points

are fundamental to powers of live music. It has a timeless stability and political relevance
of equality and oneness of everything and a very peaceful eternal dharma of sustenance

of life. All conflicts can be solved with such peaceful intelligent integrating processes.

And if science can make us aware of the dangers of global warming it can find out a way

out of it too. Therefore ,all of us together can solve the problem, if we so desire. If we

survive, it will be by our combined effort. If the civilization and humanity perish it will

be by our shared action of selfishness. What do we want ourselves to do is our own

decision.