Trends around the world

When the entire world economy is in recession,Indian economy shows signs of recovery ,but Industry and services sectors help offset lag in agriculture.The agricultur and allied industries sector has fallen back .The output of food and cash crops in 2008-09 had a record output of foodgrains.The estimates of the NEAC are based on different perceptions .It places foddgrain production at 233 tonnes against the Agricultural ministry’s 221 million tones.NEAC thinks food and cash crops will be much lower than this in 2009-10 .But overall progress of economy is satisfactory in the context of a projected contraction of global economy.(P.A.Seshan The Hindu .9.11.2009)

The growth of Indian economy (Growth in % at 1999-2000 prices):-
APRIL-JUNE(Q1)2008-2009 APRIL-JUNE(Q1)2009-10 estimate
Agriculture,forestry ,fishing 3.0 2.4
Mining,quarrying 4.6 7.9
Manufacturing 5.5 3.4
Electricity,gas,water supply 2.7 6.2
Construction 8.4 7.1
Trade,hotel,transport,communication 13.0 8.1
Financing,insurance,real estate,Business service 6.9
9.1
Community,personal,social services 8.2 6.8
GDP at factor cost 7.8 6.1

What we have to do is increase growth rate in agriculture and allied industries ,and use energy from natural sources (solar,biogas etc)and reduce construction in cultiviable areas .That will provide ample food for our increasing population,make us selfsufficient and wealthy .Since India is primarily an agricultural land with a favourable monsoon and geography for luxurious growth of natural vegetation make use of that natural wealth and recycle bioenrgy by Krishi, Goraksha and fish culture and reduce the expenditure on agriculture by self help and by co-operation of entire graama is the best policy to be adapted.

While I write this the southerly winds brought rains to Chennai unexpectedly and a pattern shift was noticed in rainfall here.The suburbs got more rains than the metro city.Meenambakkam and suburbs got good rains in NE monsoon .A new phenomenon noticed is the shift of rain and variation in this manner as shown below.
November Date Meenambakkam Nunkambakkam
6th 40 30
7th 105 91
8th 133 123
9th 45 27
10th 13 6
11th 32 21
15th 58 47
16th 37 21
18th 48 1
Usually Meenambakkam observatory receives more rains from southwest monsoon winds caused by thunderstorm activity which develops in interior rather than along coast .And the North east monsoon is active over the city than in interior areas like Meenambakkam and Tambaram.According to S.R.Ramanan,director of RMC,the heavy downpour was caused by the southerly winds which blew unexpectedly bringing rainclouds in their wake.Thus there is a shift and reversal of winds at least ,noticed only in Chennai but possibly in other areas which is not yet noticed by the people and officials.And the same phenomenon cased a mishap in Oottakamandala(Udaka is water) or the cycle of waters and its effect were seen as floods in Nilgiri,in Chittur and Palghat including the Kottayi gramam of Chembai Vaidyanath Bhagavathar in suburbs of Palghat.This though a small scale floods was like the floods of last year in Bihar caused by Nepal’s opening up of a water resource in Brahmaputhra .When a king/administration gives orders to open up water from above sudden floods happen in land below .To prevent that in olden times same administration was there in upland and down below.That is how Mithila(present parts of eastern India including Bihar)and Nepal was under one king attached to the dynasty of Ikshwaku,Suryavansi in Ayodhya.The same was true of Nilgiri Vadamalappuram,Thenmalappuram and Konghuchera beyond Palghat pass under one king .Now we are under one center but the states and their Govts have taken up a policy of infights over water resources for no reason at all.

At the same time both TOI and Hindu reports that for the first time in two decades India is trying to import rice .This is said to be to make up shortfall in kharif crops eventhough it has surplus stock in godowns.This statement is controversial If there is enough in the godown and if we expect a good produce due to high rainfall this season why this haste to import grains?According tour Government estimates kharif rice output is likely to fall 18 %to about 69.45 millions tones due to pooor monsoons leading to a shortfall of about 15 million tones in 2009-10.The SW monsoon this year wa 23 % below normal ,the worst in 37 years.According to US department of agriculture (USDA)India is the second largest producer of rice in the world and if it has to import 200000 onnes of rice at a greater price than the domestic market ,to meet its domestic requirements ,how can we call our administration as efficient and our citizens as educated and concerned about our national economy and growth?Global tenders are floating the market and by the announcement of the finance minister they are increasing their prices ,since there is a demand .So where would it lead Indian economy to?Should not we co-operate in every possible way to cope up with food sufficiency since India is a tropical land with a agrarian economy of great strength and we should know our strengths and weaknesses .By promoting other things and neglecting agriculture we are digging our own grave.