Evidence of Indian influence on foreign lands

Evidence of Indian influence in foreign lands.

From lower Mesopotamian plain(Sumer and Akkad)to the Baluchisthan(Kulli

culture)which was called the Kekaya in Indian scriptures, and to Indogangetic divide upto

Gujarat ,the entire area (except Harappa ) share one geographic feature. Arid and semiarid

climate with summer draughts ,unevenly distributed and unreliable rainfall in winter, less

than 250mm per year. Therefore an agriculture based on winter agriculture and herding of

animals like sheep and goat was predominant in these areas.

From Gujarat onwards the entire west coast of India has a monsoon rainfall. The upper

Ganga Yamuna doab is transitional between arid Indus plain and monsoon Gangetic plain

is the eastern limit for winter farming in the north of the subcontinent. The Thar desert is

a physical and cultural divide ,but once it was fertile and was nourished by the

Saraswathy and its tributaries which dried up later leading to the desert climate. The

easternmost manifestation of the arid zone is the Harappan culture .

The environment ,economical potential of each of these regions helped exchange of trade

and local fertility and differences in produces,and mineral resources and sociopolitical

conditions made the organization of trade and commerce possible.Afghanistan with its

inaccessible north east mountains of it was the ancient Gandhara (Khandahar now)of

India.

Kekaya and Gandhara were parts of India and Indian kings were ruling there and their

daughters were wives of Indian kings.Dasaratha,Dhritharashtra and SriKrishna had wives

from such regions. Therefore they were very much involved in defending the Indian

subcontinent from outside invasions and acting as controllers of trade and commerce and

the trade routes to the west by land.
The land route from Baluchistan and Khandahar (Kekaya and Gandhara in Indian

scriptures)is first mentioned in Ramayana .The same route continued to be used in the

17th century between India and the west.(part 2,Chap 3 Neils Strengard in Sushil

Choudhary and Michael Morineau Cambridge Uty press 1999).This ancient caravan route

linked India to Persia and markets further west by way of Khandahar.Its vitality is

documented.

1.Isfahan through Thatta ,along Kabul to North west Mints of silver

,Lahore,Multan,Thatta,Kabul,Khandahar.

2.Steel and Crowther on 3.4.1615 starts a journey ,reach Lahore on 23rd ,delayed by

inability to get a permission, on 29th joined a large caravan, with convoy of horsemen (just

as in Ramayana).Reach Khandahar on 7th July. This was the frontier post of India

(Mughal empire)and a nodal port of caravan traffic. But it yielded nothing but provisions

to travelers. Camels could be hired at 20 % profit. On 23rd July left Khandahar with 3

Armenian and 12 Persian merchants. On 27th reach Girisk in Persia
8th August Farah where import duty has to be given. Beyond Persia

horses,slaves,gold,nonPersian silver coin and export was not allowed.9th August leave

Farah.Deserts crossed with oasis at Birjand and Tabas.They bypassed Yazd ,off the main

route. Reached Isfaharn on 19th September.

3.Poser in opposite direction.

Start on 18th July 1621.On August 1 reach Yezd center of silk industry. No freshwater for

3-4 days being in desert .In Tabas ,Birjand saw windmills. On Sep 2 in Farah where

irrigation works and size of fruits are recorded by traveler. Here a Persian and an Indian

chief of the same caraven and an official from the local Government inspects all people

,baggage,etc and there is a small charge for the hired camel. He fell ill on Sep 12th .On 14th

at Girisk.There he finds a strong castle which could be supported just by the caraven

revenue(showing the busy trade).It belonged to the Indian Mughal emperor.Freshmilk

and fruits were the only food of the caravan and no meat, wine or brandy was

allowed. He had to pay 5 and ½ shahi(silver)at Girisk .He saw people drinking tobacco

there.18th September leaves Girisk,cross Helmand river and reach Mughal India

proper. On 21st reached Khandahar.It was a busy important town. He saw elephant for first

time in life ,there. Busy trade ,thousands of camels entering and leaving daily. Cotton and

textile trade ,tobacco, and wantonness of multiyudes of prostitutes in Khandahar is

described. When they left Khandahar the caraven had 2000 camels. On 30 September left

Khandahar.Travelling through mountains he saw the big stature of the Aquadi who

brought sheep,butter,and rice to sell to caraven.after 16th October reached banks of Indus

river. He felt he had reached another world.5th November he is in

Multan(Moolasthaana).On 23rd reach Lahore and visits a venetian who looks after

churches in Lahore on behalf of the Jesuits in Agra. From Lahore ,broad roads, with

planted trees on sides, many markets and open planes. Passes Sir Hind, an open

countryside, with green irrigated plains ,birds,cattle,sugar production. He describes red

sugar that tastes like white sugar. On 22nd Dec reaches Agra. Total days taken 158 ,as

against Steel and Crowther who took 170 days.

4.William Foster’s early travels inIndia.1583-1619 Oxford 1921.pp 243 4 months and


odd days from Isfahan to Lahore. From there 1 month to Agra.
5.Coverte.1609.Jai salmer and Sukkur from Agra to Khandahar is the shorter route .but

he took 182 days.

18.5 shahi per camel in 6 places by Posen

56 shahi in 9 places by Steel

Security was satisfactory especially if caravan was big. Thieves were present within

caraven.in 1621 tobacco use was widespread there.

In 1610 ,there were 7000-8000 camels stationed to and fro in Khandahar

1615 it was 12000-14000 report of Steel.

Same year Thomas Coryat 2000 camels,1500 horses,1000 odd mules,800 asses,6000

people.

1617 Sir Thomas Roe 20000 camels per year

1635 From Khandahar 4000 camels reached Isfahan with cotton

1639 Cotton from India carried by 20000-25000 camels

1644 only 6000 camels

1655 only 1000 camels.

Colonies of Indian merchants lived in Isfahan.In 1618 an English merchant wondered

why Indian merchants are selling linen of India in other places while their people are

walking naked .In May 1610 Henry 1V was assassinated. The news reached Agra in

August 1611 when a caraven reached (within 8 months)and Bhagavatham rightly says the

merchant class has the duty of bringing news/messages(Vartha) in addition to their

common duties of trade ,commerce, agriculture etc.

The evidence for support of business and administrative infrastructure including custom

duty and periodic check up, security of property by armed people etc shows the ancient

trade route was very well under a strong unified regime of administration .This

continued from Ramayana times upto the European times from our literature survey.

The network developed by bonds of solidarity and trust based on common membership of

one nation identified with another that was on many levels a national substitute for the

state .Sometimes ties of marriage strengthened the trade routes and the relations of the

two partners in trade and commerce. An unquestionable cultural unity and cohesion was

provided by trust and solidarity .Transmission of technical knowledge into a special

language and specificity of such knowledge was also part of the phenomenon. There was

a school to teach the people and the merchants a specialized education, the commercial

geography, weights and measures ,currencies, arithmetic and accountancy and these

existed in each village and in specialized centers .The specialized use of arithmetic

language foreshadows a parallel in the accounting methods used. They had a reliable

system with a kind of promissory note which involve four or more people at long

distances and repayment deadlines were the travel times. For example from Amsterdam to

Basra via Venice it will be 7 months Swat to Isfahan is 105 days ,Dacca to Calcutta is 15

days ,like that. Only the degree of mastery of the sea and substantial presence of

continental continuous trade helped to strengthen the networks and the major sea

networks were monopoly of sea merchants of coastal India and their overlords so that it

was unified system.

What was the commercial relation of India and Ottoman empire in late 15th to 18th

century? In 1503 Ludo Vico de Varthema found merchants of

Iran,Tartany,Turkey,Syria,Maghreb,Yemen,Ethiopia and rest of India and the inhabited

islands of the sea in port of Calicut.Iron,steel,neel(indigo)and cotton of India was in

demand in Basra(Baghdad).In 1583 English traveler J.Eldred wrote :-To Basara come

monthly divers ships laden with all sorts of Indian merchandise ,spices,drugs,Indica and

Calecut clothes.

1610.Caraven from Baghdad to Alleppo carry Indian goods via Basra

(fabrics,indigo,perfumes) and there were 120 merchants in it including Indian and Italian

,Iranian and from Baghdad. In 1624 Hormuz captured by Safavid sovereigns. In 1638

Basra regain its importance. In 1680-90 the custom regulation of luxury clothes of India

Records

11 kinds of Muslin to make turbans

5 types of Quitny(cotton+silk)

4 types of satin

11 types of Ikates fabrics

7 types of bafta(a type of calico)

5 types of costumes

Chintz in 5 colours

The major entre port for Indian articles was Red sea into the Ottoman empire. The

pilgrims to Mecca were the potential commercial agents.Gold was exchanged for

Malabar and Bengal muslin and chitniz at Mecca

Banias of North India and Armenians used the land routes mainly. The Armenians

,Persians ,Europeans were only intermediaries in the movement of merchandise till 18th

century .Indians and Ottoman people were direct trading partners .The Ottoman Turks

include the Arabs or the Kurds and orthodox jews from Turkey.It is interesting that the

Sultan of Istanbul did not sent trading merchants to India as he did to Moscow to get

furs.The Indian products to him were always gifts (fine

clothes,spices,drugs,perfumes,precious stones) and this was a very ancient custom due to

solidarity and relation with old Kekaya .The Ottoma apothecaries called Indian Tamarind

as Demir Hindi or Temur Hindi (which is dramila or Tamila India/sindh)and from this the

name tamarind originated in English language. Mecca pilgrims carried aloe wood of India

in baggage. Also pacholi,sandalwood,bezoar from Golconda.From 1620 only the transport

of spice route was obstructed via the red sea. After that the transport became more via the

Atlantic. The Basra records show Indian spices,nutmeg,Indigo of Ayira(? Ayiramala of

Kottavai in sangham era or from Ayirur of Kolathiri in Kudanad)and it was second

costliest after lapis lazuli of India.

English Chintz

Hindi tchint

Mahratha tchit

Malayalam Cheenthu

It is a hand painted cloth ,the oldest dating is from 1548 for cushion, mattress etc India

exported day to day domestic use clothes as well as luxury clothes right from prehistoric

upto 16th-18th century.17th century Ottoman historian Naima wrote “The Indians do not

buy anything from Ottoman territory. They find nothing they need here. They have no

needs to satisfy in foreign countries.”

This shows how self-sufficient Indian economy was at that time. They were self-sufficient

and they were giving the surplus to others and strengthening the economy. This shows a

good administration ,not a bad one. Then how did such a sudden imbalance happen? The

relation of forces after and before 1498 (which is modern period in west and medieval in

India)changed and we will see that in another chapter.

The oldest written evidence of humanity is the Indus script which is not yet read by

scholars. The next important written texts are the cuneiform tablets and they give us

sources of their goods and the destination of their trading ships as Dilmun,Magan,and

Meluhha.In the 3rd and 2nd millennium BC these were urban centers as per cuneiform

texts. The kind of goods were both raw materials and manufactured ,utilitarian and luxury

items .The notion of trade as sea route and land route was known to them and involvement

of state in trade and agrarian produce and economy is demonstrated by seals and texts of

antiquity in these regions as well as in India. The west of Afghanisthan,now not belonging

to India but the old Gandhara of India ,bordering Iran was a source of copper and tin for

Harappan culture and it helped metallurgy as well as agriculture, production of crafts .It

was utilitarian good for India .The luxury items were for social relation with kings and

rulers for gifts etc .Mesopotamian royalty was the major market for Indian luxury. For

decoration of their temples they got fine timber ,gold, lapis lazuli,etc from India. Origin of

settlements like villages started the local trade and initiation of self sufficiency and the

urban centers developed as the trade and commerce with foreign lands of great distances

increased .Urbanism refers to spatial ordering of the community ,other than subsistence

procurement like crafts,mines,transport systems, taxation for trade etc.Clustering of

nonfood producing population created opportunity for agricultural produce to be traded

locally. The concept of food for all and raw material and fuel for the manufacturers

developed. In exchange the cities gave goods manufactured and services of various kinds

to rural people.

The archeological evidence show that in Ubaid period (5th millennium BC )Eridu,Ur

,Ubaid were settled villages and people were herding and fishing in marshes. The cereal

cultivation had just started. Reed huts and mud brick houses were used. No ceramic

production seen locally. But in the early shrine of Eridu a clay model of boat with socket

for mast is seen in a grave showing knowledge of boat with use of a sail. Seasonal

sea fishing expeditions from Sumer was probably there.Uruk period from 4000-3000BC

we find architecture,sculpture,cylinder seals. There is an 100 hectare settlement ,with

evidence of 8 successive cultures. Home of legendary Enmarker Uruk show some

writings.The first writing appeared in the terminal Uruk period. It was picture like signs on

tokens and tablets for economic transactions and it corresponds with the Indian

civilization period of Vedavyasa and Srikrishna according to Kaliyuga calculation. The

port city of Dwaraka existed till 3104 BC.The temple of Eanna for Ishtar uses

copper,gold,silver,lapis lazuli,cornelian,basalt ,chlorite,marble,and limestone. Only

limestone is locally available. All others are imported .North and south Uruk had pottery

but no Uruk pottery is so far discovered in gulf (pp11 Q. J.Oates and D.T.Potts Shereen

Ratnagar OUP ).Ninevah on the left bank of upper Tigris an important center on route

from North Iran,Anatolia,and Gulf on excavation show artifacts of Uruk type.

At Muscat the discovery of a plank boat (construction and repair)around 3100 BC with

bitumen mixture heating was seen and this is the time of decline of Yadavas of Gujarat

and loss of Dwaraka in India.

The westernmost Harappan center is Sukhthagon-Dor which is fortified to prevent

invasion from west and a local culture of 4th millennium BC exist there (before Uruk

period and before Krishna).Prehistoric Baluchistan (kekaya)link with Turkemania

(quettaware)is established. At Mehrgarh also the connection is seen. There along with

lapis,carnelian,gold,silver ornaments, ornaments of shank shells from the sea of south

India and south East Asia had been identified showing how wide the trade relations were .
Mesopotamia:-

Arid region. In 3000 BC the seed harvest ratio was 1:70.due to annual floods of two

rivers. The stock rearing of sheep and goat was known. In 2600 BC .One temple had

14000 goats and sheep. Wool industry flourished (1Kg wool /animal).Moving pastoralists

were part of economy and sharing of trade goods. In March /April the spring shearing of

wool ,they enter silled zones and exchange wool for necessary goods. Harvests over, they

graze and fertilize fields by droppings. The trees were poplar and willow ,tamarisk, and

date palm. It gave charcoal of bad quality and used for roof beams for ordinary houses. No

wood of strength and durability existed for cart frame, boats and ships and for temple

pillars. These were from far off places and through sea route. Standing at the head of the

gulf south Mesopotamia traded with east and south East .In their writings we find that

Ur,Lagash and Akkad were proud of foreign ships visiting their coasts. They say the

foreign ships brought wood and metal to them through water transport. In ancient times

Ur was one of the southern cities and Jacobson says(1960.185) the water body as a

marshy lake ,seen south of Ur was in ancient times a part of gulf .

The trade relations of Mesopotamia with South Asia is proved by archeological findings

and exchange of several articles including seals, weights and measures and trefoil

figurines on ox/bulls, Indian bull figurines, cylinder seal of rhinoceros with a bead on its

face, of elephants ,ghariels and a lapis lazuli amulet showing two Indian elephants, and

two seals with water buffalo of India which is not a feature of Mesopotamia.

But the ships bringing wood from Dilmun and copper for which barley,cedarwood and

flour were exchanged is mentioned in texts showing the nature of daily use materials

exchange .On Nippur statues in the time of sargon,and from the historical account of

curse of Akkad we have important information about the nature of trade relation with

India.

The Akkadian dynasty of Sargon had three generations .Son of Sargon was Manishtusu

and his son Narain Sen who defeated a Magan king. The names of the kings are definitely

Indian especially the first and the third.

Jacobson has read the historical text of curse of Akkad and given an English translation

quoted by Rathnagar in her book. I will just quote a few lines from it here.

1.Sumerians ,Martu nomads, and Meluhhas came to Akkad.

From Sumer’s own stones

Barges were towed

The Martu of the highlands

Men who knew not grain

Were coming to her with perfect bulls.

Perfect kids

The Meluhhans,men of the black mountains

Were bringing down

Strange goods to her from them.

That means the barges were of Sumer’s stones but the ships were foreign. The Martu is

the Sanskrit Maruthu or winds (49 types of winds )and the monsoon winds bring

high fertility for grains .They brought to them grains and bulls (ploughing bulls)and their

children which were perfect breeds in every way. they also brought strange unfamiliar

goods from the Meluhha country which is the country of black hills.

2.BC 2125 epic inscribed on cylinder A and B Gudea of building a temple and

acquisition of materials for it:-

The Elamites came to the king from Elam

The Susaine from Susa

The Magan,Meluhha in the mountains

Loaded wood upon their shoulders for him

And gathered to build Ningarisu’s home.

3.Carnelian they were lavishing on him from Meluhha.

4.Gifts before the deity:

Chariot,special type of maces,weapons

Copper,tin,slabs of lapis lazuli,

Refined silver,pure Meluhha carnelian

He set up in a huge copper pail.

5.Statue A inscription:- Diorite from Magan mountains which the statue was covered.

6.Statue B inscription:-Diorite come from Meluhha together with gold in its ore state.

7.Statue D inscription:- Magan,Meluhha,Gubin and Dilmun sent wood .They let their

timber cargoes sail to Lagash.

Meluhha is blessed with large cattle and trees
.
8.The speckled dogs of Meluhha was brought to Ibbi-Sin of Ur as a .gift.The area was

also a source of carnelian beads. (This gives us the clue to the fact that Meluhha country

or Mlechadesa in Sanskrit was Kekaya of India. The gifts of King of Kekaya to Dasartha

through Bharatha ,his grandson included speckled spotted fierce dogs of a superbreed

variety special to Kekaya.To this date such mastiff dogs are special for the region.

The UR dynasty and its empire fell in 2004 BC and we find the trade contact till that date

from Indian Kekaya .

But was Kekaya or Baluchistan a black mountain which grew lot of trees which gave it a

greenish/bluish black color? No. But the organized trade and commerce of India made it

possible to get wood from the Sahya and transport it by ships with help of monsoon

winds and the black people of Mlecha country(Krishna )were known as a single

community from entire Sindhudesa to southwestern India.

We cannot consider the Gulf coast taking part in this ancient trade .Because Akkadian Ur

fell by 2004 BC and the Arabian coast of gulf was uninhabited till the oil was struck and

the Bahrain culture starts in 1500BC and Kuwait culture starts in 2000 BC well after the

SUMERIAN/AKKADIA civilizations fell. But in 1900 Dilmun (Bahrain)had sent Indian

ivory,carnelian,gold and fisheye(mother of pearl specific for Bahrain and Gulf

coast)lapis,copper,wood of good quality, wooden objects,Guhlu etc none except fish eye

is the product of gulf but of India.Guhlu from Dilmun is translated as antimony. The term

resembles Guggulu a medicinal substance for heart diseases is my observation.

What was taken back by Dilmun for exchange of such costly things from

Mesopotamia.? The answer is very significant. For such superior quality articles,Dilmun

ships took back inferior quality wool, and garments, leather goods, silver and sesame oil.

Articles from Dilmun to Ur Source of ref information(archeological)
1 Carnelian UET V
2Semiprecious stones UET 3 .672; UET V ,;UET 1244
3.Ivory and Ivory objects UET 3;UET V;Urik archaic text DP 237;513;518,RTC 26,VS X1V 30,38,194,UET V UET V 796 Expecting a very large quantity
4.Copper
5 Silver D.T.Potts 1990 227 says susa texts dt 1720 BC 17.5 Manna silver
6Lapiz lazuli UET V Texts
7.fish eye same
8.red gold Same Tablets
9.white corals same
10.wood of good quality UR ,Gudea statue D ,Cylinder A,UET V
11.Dates Enki,Ninhurag
12.Bitumen for ship repair YOS 5 ,Larsa pd text

This shows Bahrain or Dilmun was acting as an entre port for trade of Sumer,Akkad and

India (west Asia)and was not a trading partner for them. For acting as entrepot they

received the inferior quality articles from Mesopotamia and probably from India they got

some grains or food material and clothes for day to day use and the art of repair of ships

was taught for mutual help.Cylinder A passage mentions transport of wood and huge

amounts of food grains. In the deluge myth of Akkad,Zinsudra escapes deluge and

allowed to live in Dilmun ,a place where the Akkadian sun rises and called the land of

Crossing.(to east of Akkadia and the crossing point or entre port of India and

Mesopotamia in sea trade. Before 2000 BC there was no fresh water in Bahrain and

people could not settle there. In a 3000 BC profession text ,a tax collector is mentioned

showing that the export trade was well organized and state controlled by the trading

partners. The Magan contact is mentioned from Akkadian period only and not in

Sumerian period. Oman has copper which is mentioned only after Akkadian period. The

reason for this is:-

1.Dilmun may not be a specific geographic name for Bahrain only ,but included other

islands also

2.Dilmun acted as a middle man since they were using the weights and measures of

Harrappa and IVC and did not have weights and measures of their own.

Why is the Maruths of the highlands of India called the men who don’t know grains and

the black men of the black mountains of Mlechadesa said to have brought good wood and

well-bred plough bulls and calves for agricultural use?

The answer is simple. The Upper highlands of Baluchistan (kekaya) and

Gandhara(Afghanistan)were not cultivable lands and had only limited pastural

life. Stretches of uninhabited land near settlements with artisans living and manufacturing

goods was the picture. They needed grain and it was supplied by organized trade from the

fertile southern regions of India, The manufactured goods reached through trade routes all

over the world. The South East of Bampur Valley lies Baluchisthan and North East is

Kerman region to Seisthan.SE Zagroz zone is Soghun valley through which flow Dozdan

river to gulf of Oman in the vicinity of Minab which is a fertile district and if one walks

for 5-6 days through this riverbank, one can reach the sea coast from Yahya

Tepe.Downstream the Soghan valley 24 Km southeast of Dolatabad lies the copper

deposits and large quantities of slag is visible. Steatite specifically chlorite is seen in 4

locations here .Therefore from Neolithic to Sussarian times Tepe Yahya had human

settlements and in early 4th millennium BC thirty settlements were in Dolatabad.By the

time of Yahya IVC period most of these settlements were abandoned. In Yahya period

1V c ,a storage building complex where the consignments were stored and dispatched

existed .They stored lapis lazuli, solid foot goblets with flat base unlike the hollow conical

foot and conical cup forms of Barber 1 period. The sequence of organization and

transport of culture and materials is from east to west and not from west to east or

downwards from north. The South provided food and raw materials and available

minerals along with rich forest products and gold and the northern India and North

west provided great manufacture centers of copper, chlorites ,and other minerals and

metals and metallurgy became specialized and export quality. The entire trade from

Kanyakumari to Gandhara and Kekaya was well organized through sea and land routes

and this made the land self sufficient and could give surplus to Babylon and Akkad and

Sumeria through organizes state administration. The concept of a organized ekarashtra is

seen in Mahabhagavatha and The ekarshtra is Brahmanda(universe)itself and Bhartha

was only part of this ekarashtra and was sharing its valuable products for cheap things

which she did not need but the entrepots needed in exchange. By the development of

organized specialized professional excellance and knowledge and sharing by co-

operation she had learned and taught a new system of successful administration based on

confederation of self-sufficient republics of several panchayaths and nagara .

The Helmand civilization and Gaandhara:-The Helmand river originate from the

Hindukush mountainous highlands and form the Hamun-I Helmand in Seisthan.One of its

tributaries Arghandab flows through Kandahar and meet Halmand west of Kandahar.The

seat of Shahr-I Sokhta and Helmand civilization is this part.

The names Hamun-I and Shahr-I strikes a familiar chord in our memory, because the

name of the Gandhara prince who accompanied Gandhari to Hasthinapur was Sakuni ,a

unnatural name which looks quite different from other names of the epic and if written as

Sakun-I it is a Gandhaara name .The Hamun lake the only fertile region of Iran is

changing dimensions year to year and climate is bad for agriculture. The notorious winds

of 120 days (from May to October)creates havoc on soil,vegetation,sand particles act as

abrasive ,erode soil, strip the plants of their leaves etc.The whole stretch of lands from this

to Nepal is the land of the Northern Maruths ,as described by Akkadians ,but the Nepal is

geographically different from Iran and has cultivable lands though a land of winds.(Many

of the places are having the suffix of Hawa or wind attached ).This stretch of land is on

the silk route .The wheat and cattle(animal husbandry)was practiced and mats

,weaving, wool spinning etc were occupation of people .Quartz,alabaster,flint

,marble,calcite,are available in Seisthan ,the seat of Sassanian and Parthian

kings.(Sassania is from Sasaadha and Parthian is from Bharatheeya and these are

corrupted local usages).Silver, lead and malachite pebbles(same as in Mundigark)is seen

in the south. To the east the Helmond leads to Kandahar and Mundigak

settlement.Helmand river is not navigable in any part and hence the transport is only by

land route.

One important archeological find is that in grave 10 of Shakr-I –soktha which is the

limits to Baluchisthan(Kekaya)one finds shreds of nal pottery and vases and a collection

of Shank shells from south Asia on the surface of the mountains showing that it was a

confluence place for three civilizations Central Asia,South Asia and west Asia. The total

area of Shahr-I soktha is only 151 hectares and the other settlements are only the size of

small villages not more than 2 hectares. The time span is from 4th millennium BC to end of

2nd millennium .Only 2000 years did that civilization exist. It was not continuous as

Indian ,but had features in common with Indian and was acting as a boundary and

transport center for trade and commerce .Shahr-I soktha has scarce evidence of long

distance export –import and only connection is with S.E.I ran .On the other hand

Mundigarh near Khadahar which has an agricultural production stretch of present

Afghanisthan and old Gandhara ,was the node of a very ancient caravan route from

Herat,Indus plains,Sibi,Quetta,Kabul and Ghazni.It is not in the fertile Kandhahar plain

but 50 Km North ,separated from a hill spur and the routes used by

pastoralists(Idaya/Yaaadava) who go to Gandhara plain for the winter sojourn.(Rathnagar

pp 67).The eccentric location and an important deposit of Galena gave importance to

Mundigarh.The layers of occupation predates Shahr-I soktha by 1000 years. But it became

an urban center only in 3000 BC -2000 BC with a defensive rampart and a palace.(That

was the time of Mahabharatha and Krishna and of the rise of Kuru race and sons of

Gandhari).The people used metal,stone,seals,and a work shop and two carved ivory

artifacts are excavated from here which does not exist in Shahr-I soktha
.
Iranian Baluchisthan (The Bampur valley)with mountain ranges ,plateus,winding river

basins,low troughs is a desolate zone of base rock and sanddunes.The size and number of

human settlements are limited .The major diet is fish from a perennial river .Pastoralism

,seasonal migration for high pastures on Makran ranges and Sarawan plateau still exists

as prehistoric times. The only surplus they have is wool and ghee. The household

equipment is minimal. Palm leaves used for making huts,tents,mats etc.On North Bampur

valley opens to river Damian’s tributary near Irahshakr and here there is cultivation and

on its east margin lie Katukan .On east is Bampur and Mashkel,once a part of the Seistan

empire.

River Halil Rud from Kerman area, and to south towards Makran ,empty into Hamun-I

Jaz Murian ,a low trough at center of which is the famous salt lake.Bampur river empty

into salt lake from east. Thus the natural route of communication existed between Kerman

,Makran,Halil Rud and Bampur.In SE direction, the Halil Rud-Bampur route continue to

Serbaz and then Kej valley and on NE to Rakshan and Mashkel valley. An old route

connect Bampur to Char Bahar ,which is an important settlement and harbour on Makran

coast .On the north a route leads to Seistan.

Thus copper traveled to west of Halil Rud near Faryab,lead to Kuh-I –Jebel Bariz,both

copper and lead to slope of Kuh-I Tuftan,and copper to Northern slope of Srhadd from

here.Mundigark and MohenjoDaro was in constant contact with Bampur and this caraven

route and intermediate centre of distribution. This connection continued even during

Buddhist period as we see the Buddhist idols of that period in plenty here.

Now we have seen how the land routes of India and Babylon/Akkadia was established and

how the ancient caraven routes connected the two sides of the globe.Now we have to

locate the Magan mentioned in Sumerian/Akkadian manuscripts,because Sargan was

receiving boats and ships from Magan,Meluhha and Dilmun and Dilmun is the entre-port

Bahrain ,and Meluhha is the Mlechadesa called Sindhu-Souveera in Sanskrit.

Sargon’s son Manishtusiu sailed across the lower sea and defeated 32 towns of Magan

and cleared the way for metal and silver mines ,quarried black stone of mountains of lower sea, loaded it on ships at the quay of Agade.Narain Sen,his son, subjugated Magan

,captured its EN(ruler)quarried diorite in mountains and cursed the sea and defeated

Magan ,and washed weapons in lower sea according to his inscriptions.Gudeas statue

inscriptions say Na4 esi from Magan was taken in Magan ships of wood.(This is same as

diorite/dolerite).Gudeas statues are made of it. It is dark hard takes lustrous sheen when

polished. It was used for Akkad and Lagash architecture and came from Magan.In

Ninurtha myth it is said a special mace was made for him with diorite from Magan which

has silver around it.Gudea made his own statue with it and kept in temple.

Magan is a land of sailors and merchants according to the description but none of 3rd

millennium cultures of Iran had substantial maritime and shipbuilding

knowledge.Chahbar was the only natural harbour on the whole of Persian coast .Magan is
said to be a land of mines and copper came from there to Sumer.What else came from

Magan?

Haluppu wood for furniture ,chariots but not for ship-building.

Mesu wood for vehicles and furniture only. Not good for ship-building

Darius inscription call it Yaka in old Persian language which is equivalent to Yaksha in

Sanskrit(The yaksha wood from land of Yaksha,Kubera who is a ruler of Himalaya

,including Nepal upto Lanka in south according to Ramayana ).It came from Gandhara

and Karmaana(Kerman)and is Dalbergia Sissoo called Yax or Jag in local

Kerman.Yaka/Mesu is Sissoo.Magan reed is bamboo which grows in Makran and

bamboo pieces for export is excavated from Harappa.

Sar-Ma-Gan is onion, garlic and asafetida of India traded between India and Gulf through

Kerman where it is grown for trade. Red ocher is another.

Magan is old Persian Maka /Makaran (Mahaa/Mahagrihan)and the present Mehrgarh

.Ivory from Kerala and Karnataka went to west and barley and wool came from west

through Makran and Makran /Magan thus formed an important link for commerce and

trade. Grave 8 of Shusin(read as Susena) in 2030 BC ,just 1000 yrs after Dwaraka

sank, there had been a floods and famine in India and Magna received 70-600 gur (21000

to 180000 liters)and barley from Ensi of the town .In the reign of the last ruler the

dynasty records a merchant who took delivery from temple of Nouna of consignments for

purchase of Magan copper and wood in exchange of fish, garments ,hides and sesame

oil. The texts say lapis lazuli came from Mehluhha and Aratta valley but not from

Magan.Arattaka desa is mentioned in all ancient Sanskrit texts as part of India and it was

a yadava country..And Mlehchadesa is that parts of India where the people do not follow

the Vedic injunctions correctly and speak a mlechabhaasha or prakrithic regional

language. In Akkad period and UR 111 texts reference to a man Lu-ma-gan(or Mr

Magan,man of Magan )is seen.It was a trade center subjugated by Akkadians and a trade

partner for Sumerians from where Magan came. In India also mention of MaagaBrahmana

is seen as experts in astronomy, and philosophy as well as architecture .Harappan people

had strong links with this area and both Harappa and Maagan were part of India

itself. There are settlements along the major avenues of commercialization and Makran is

called the land of passage.Physiographically the route runs East-west and Southwest to

North east .During Alexander’s period coastal Makran was not suitable for caravan traffic

but was possible from Kej valley(in Makran) to Bampur and Sarbaz valley and this east

west routes natural eastward extension was Mashkai (Mushkai)valley

,Nal,Khuzder,Bela(east)across Nal river to Jhan pass by two day caravan journey. From

Khuz der to east through Mula pass reach southwest edge of Katchi plains(Katch or

Brighukatcha plains start here)Then turn southeast you are in Mohenjodaro.So

Mohenjodaro was the centre of the Brighuvansi and their generations of rulers. From

Bela to south through Sounmini bay another route runs to Harappan settlement at Balakot

towards the coast of Brighukatcha.Several kulli settlements lay astride land routes

between lower Indus plains and Harappan part of Makran.Rainfall being low and

unreliable population density is less in Makran.Pasturalist nomadism is the

livelihood. The northern Las Bela is fertile and has incidence of sedentary cultivation in

Baluchistan .In kulli culture including Nindowari stone boulders not locally available is

used for architecture ,of stone terrace and platforms ,granaries,fortifications.Why such

fortifications for mobile pastoralists? The common houses of Makran and south

Baluchistan is of mudbrick and mat even today. From where did the stone come? From

where did the labor to mobilize them come?Nindowari in Makran is a Harappan site

and that settles the doubts and the mercantile and co-operative life of Kulli(Baluchistan)

or kekaya and Harappan(Bharatha race)people which has literary/archeological evidence

from Ramayana/Mehrgarh times .The cart transport is by donkey/camel due to rugged

surface of land routes. And fodder for animal caraven is difficult to obtain. The

fortification of Harappan port settlement in Makaran show some anticipation of threat

from some one. Was it from Iranian Baluchistan during times of hardships? The

Harappan merchants in the fortified city were residing there to get copper from mines

between Hiari and Bela.Their weights and measures in the kulli sites were for that

purpose. The Harappan Mesopotamian trade like ivory, carnelian beads, and silver did not

touch the Kulli sites. Therefore it is evident that Harappan people used Kulli sites as a

periphery of their empire. And as in the village and town planning of India ,the

periphery of their empire also was guarded by people of the outcaste who eat meat and do

tanning and animal scavenging and are good messengers in times of danger to the interior

,and the inhabitants were the Mlecha of Indian language and Meluhha of the Outside

world of Akkad and Sumer.

The Harappan ports of Makran excavated are:-

1.The most westerly Sutkagen dor 650 Km west of Lower Indus ,and thus belongs to

Sindhudesa ,the Mlecha land of India.The king of this area was Brihadratha and his son

Jayadratha during Mahabharatha days and Jayadratha was husband of Dussala ,the

princess of Hastinapure and niece of Prince of Gandhara ,Sakun-I .So they were not a

different race .

Coastal Makran the uninhabited desert and hilly ,cliffy, swampy arid clay plains and bad

water ,170 mm rain/annum and failing rains every 3 years grows only dates ,jower and

barley. No perennial wells ,only a few natural springs exist .Houses are mat made. Fish is

eaten and fed to livestock .For dates they get back bread and barley .

2.Tiz .This is a natural harbour located away from monsoon winds reach and hence they

could not use monsoon winds for sea travel and had no first hand awareness or

experience of monsoon winds/sea route by winds. But it was a port. The materials from

southern ports reached here and were taken in exchange for the copper ,wool ,dates etc

and then transported to other areas.

3.Dasht-Sukthagon Dor of Harappans.

4.15 Km north of Pasni ,the Harappan site of Sotka Koh.

5.From Sonmani Bay an old route reach 12 Km inland in a Harappan site Balakot with

fresh water in deep wells and cultivation with well water irrigation. And 25 Km inland is

another Harappan site Khaira Kot. ( One thing which I notice is that the fortified cities and

ports have a name Dor which resembles Dwaraka with same meaning as doorway ,and

the suffix Kot to Baala( name of Devi)and Khaira (for artisans or kammala )resemble the

suffix Kozhikod or koodam (meaning a center where people meet /kooda or koodastha

/kozhikoodam in sangha literature,Irunjaala koodal/chithiraikoodal etc ).

The Harappan sites communicated through boat traffic all the year round and into the

vicinity including Mesopotamia westward which did not know shipbuilding as their own

texts show.

6.Gwador bay and Pasni.The best ports of Makran .now in Pakistan. Well sheltered and

with the seasonal Desht river that is tidal for 20 Km .The exclusive Sutkagon dor

Harappan site with fortified walls used these ports .Sotkan Koh and Sutkagan dor are on

top of a natural rocky elevation(Girigurga).The Giridurga and the

Mahagriha(Mehrgarh)of Kekaya is mentioned in Ramayana when the messenger of

Vasishta traverse the route to reach there .

Balakot is small .The lowest levels are pre-Harappan .High levels are Harappan

period. Shell industry of bangles, unfinished articles, and bivalve shells in abundance

noticed. Distance from sea shore of these Harappan sites.

Sutkagon dor 48 Km

Sotka koh 12 Km

Balakot 9 Km

Makran also show early microlithic pre-Harappan and protoelamite sites showing their

antiquity.

Harappan civilization is in the stretch of land comprising NW FP ,west Punjab, Rajasthan

upto Aravally from eastern limits of an arid semiarid belt across SW Asia and share

geographical features with west Asia ,and is a transitional zone and is on the western

borders of monsoon India .

In west Asia rain is between November to April. Wild sheep and wild wheat grow in dry

winter areas. During this time a high pressure stream enters NW India from west Asia

,one branch of it follow the south flank of Northern mountain ranges. Beneath it low

pressure troughs or waves and small winter rainfall follow.

.

Trends around the world

When the entire world economy is in recession,Indian economy shows signs of recovery ,but Industry and services sectors help offset lag in agriculture.The agricultur and allied industries sector has fallen back .The output of food and cash crops in 2008-09 had a record output of foodgrains.The estimates of the NEAC are based on different perceptions .It places foddgrain production at 233 tonnes against the Agricultural ministry’s 221 million tones.NEAC thinks food and cash crops will be much lower than this in 2009-10 .But overall progress of economy is satisfactory in the context of a projected contraction of global economy.(P.A.Seshan The Hindu .9.11.2009)

The growth of Indian economy (Growth in % at 1999-2000 prices):-
APRIL-JUNE(Q1)2008-2009 APRIL-JUNE(Q1)2009-10 estimate
Agriculture,forestry ,fishing 3.0 2.4
Mining,quarrying 4.6 7.9
Manufacturing 5.5 3.4
Electricity,gas,water supply 2.7 6.2
Construction 8.4 7.1
Trade,hotel,transport,communication 13.0 8.1
Financing,insurance,real estate,Business service 6.9
9.1
Community,personal,social services 8.2 6.8
GDP at factor cost 7.8 6.1

What we have to do is increase growth rate in agriculture and allied industries ,and use energy from natural sources (solar,biogas etc)and reduce construction in cultiviable areas .That will provide ample food for our increasing population,make us selfsufficient and wealthy .Since India is primarily an agricultural land with a favourable monsoon and geography for luxurious growth of natural vegetation make use of that natural wealth and recycle bioenrgy by Krishi, Goraksha and fish culture and reduce the expenditure on agriculture by self help and by co-operation of entire graama is the best policy to be adapted.

While I write this the southerly winds brought rains to Chennai unexpectedly and a pattern shift was noticed in rainfall here.The suburbs got more rains than the metro city.Meenambakkam and suburbs got good rains in NE monsoon .A new phenomenon noticed is the shift of rain and variation in this manner as shown below.
November Date Meenambakkam Nunkambakkam
6th 40 30
7th 105 91
8th 133 123
9th 45 27
10th 13 6
11th 32 21
15th 58 47
16th 37 21
18th 48 1
Usually Meenambakkam observatory receives more rains from southwest monsoon winds caused by thunderstorm activity which develops in interior rather than along coast .And the North east monsoon is active over the city than in interior areas like Meenambakkam and Tambaram.According to S.R.Ramanan,director of RMC,the heavy downpour was caused by the southerly winds which blew unexpectedly bringing rainclouds in their wake.Thus there is a shift and reversal of winds at least ,noticed only in Chennai but possibly in other areas which is not yet noticed by the people and officials.And the same phenomenon cased a mishap in Oottakamandala(Udaka is water) or the cycle of waters and its effect were seen as floods in Nilgiri,in Chittur and Palghat including the Kottayi gramam of Chembai Vaidyanath Bhagavathar in suburbs of Palghat.This though a small scale floods was like the floods of last year in Bihar caused by Nepal’s opening up of a water resource in Brahmaputhra .When a king/administration gives orders to open up water from above sudden floods happen in land below .To prevent that in olden times same administration was there in upland and down below.That is how Mithila(present parts of eastern India including Bihar)and Nepal was under one king attached to the dynasty of Ikshwaku,Suryavansi in Ayodhya.The same was true of Nilgiri Vadamalappuram,Thenmalappuram and Konghuchera beyond Palghat pass under one king .Now we are under one center but the states and their Govts have taken up a policy of infights over water resources for no reason at all.

At the same time both TOI and Hindu reports that for the first time in two decades India is trying to import rice .This is said to be to make up shortfall in kharif crops eventhough it has surplus stock in godowns.This statement is controversial If there is enough in the godown and if we expect a good produce due to high rainfall this season why this haste to import grains?According tour Government estimates kharif rice output is likely to fall 18 %to about 69.45 millions tones due to pooor monsoons leading to a shortfall of about 15 million tones in 2009-10.The SW monsoon this year wa 23 % below normal ,the worst in 37 years.According to US department of agriculture (USDA)India is the second largest producer of rice in the world and if it has to import 200000 onnes of rice at a greater price than the domestic market ,to meet its domestic requirements ,how can we call our administration as efficient and our citizens as educated and concerned about our national economy and growth?Global tenders are floating the market and by the announcement of the finance minister they are increasing their prices ,since there is a demand .So where would it lead Indian economy to?Should not we co-operate in every possible way to cope up with food sufficiency since India is a tropical land with a agrarian economy of great strength and we should know our strengths and weaknesses .By promoting other things and neglecting agriculture we are digging our own grave.

What does the Media say?

What the media says ?


Mathrubhoomi

19.10.2009. page 1.

About the “Everyone to the field “programme of the Kerala Government and how it

became a failure.

The first seeds for this project were sown in the Thiruvananthapuram District ,in the

fields of Mankilikkara and Melankode.That date was on January 14th and the chief

Minister himself took the farmers to the fields in the presence of his ministers and

M.L.As .After 10 months ,the paddy was taken and it was given to Supply co 6 months

back. The farmers who took loans to do the project has not got the cost of that paddy

given to the Supplyco.The farmers do not ask for any favor except the cost of the paddy

given to the Government –run Supply co.

Where was the mistake ?

1.The agricultural operation started at the incorrect time.

2.The seeds given by Kerala Agricultural department was not suitable.

3.Therefore the seeds of “Kanchana”had to be brought from outside. For this 141

Members of legislative assembly members gave 1000 Rs each amounting to

1,41000.With this 5 hectares each of fields in Mankilikara and Melankode were

cultivated.

4.For reaping there were no people .Nor were there any Ministers or MLAs
.
5.Without labourers,the farmers wanted a Reaping machine. This was not available.

6.By that time the summer rains came .And the paddy in the fields fell to one side.

7.Without any other option, the farmers took the old sickle themselves and turned to

laborers (This alone is what I think a co-operative and sensible decision. They could

have done this before the summer rains without waiting for the Government support )

8.When the difficulties of the farmers became news in the media, the District asked the

panchayath to allot a reaping machine.

9.In Mankilikkara the farmers had to give 370 Para paddy for the cost of reaping alone.

10.In Melankode panchayath ,the officers of the Agricultural department gave 53000 Rs

in their own capacity.

11 .Though there had been ample advice from Agricultural department and their

concentrated effort and the farmers obedience was there ,the expected production of

paddy did not happen due to all these reasons.

12.The expected production was 2000 Kg per Acre. The actual product was a mean of

1200 Kg only .

13.The saddest part is that when the farmers told about their loss ,the Agricultural

department did not believe .But they took it as a challenge and to prove that agriculture

can be made a gain they directly did it in 50 cent of fields under Asst Director Mini K

Raja .They had an expenditure of Rs 11800 Rs .The Gain after selling the product was

8200 Rs .The loss was 3600 Rs.

14.The similar project under Agricultural officer Chithra in Kalliyur ,by three

departmental staff in 85 cents of fields was a greater loss. By these two experiments the

Agricultural department understood that the farmers were honest.

In the 4th page of the same newspaper there is an interesting dialogue between a minister

and a Agricultural officer.

Min:-There are numerous Agricultural officers here .One cannot walk without brushing

against them. What are all these people and the Agricultural Uty doing ?We should get
about 25-30 meni from one Hectare and what we get is only 10-12 meni.If this much only

is the production I would not have asked the farmers to do a second pooval.

(This dialogue happened in the Trichur Kol Krishi Yoga and the concerned Minister was

Mullakara Rathnakara).

Agricultural officer:-In the first pooval there had been good production. The reason for

the first high production is the ekkal which has been deposited during the rainy

season.This is not available in the second pooval.Therefore ,naturally the productivity

will be less.

Mini:-That means ,even now,the basis for agricultural is Prakrithi itself .My question is

what you scientists did to increase its productivity ?

In 1961-62 from 7.53 lakh hectares of fields Kerala had produced 12.08 lakhs tons of

paddy. In 2007-2008 from 2.83 lakhs hectares of fields 6.50 lakh tons of paddy .And 80 %

of what Kerala needs is now being purchased from outside.

The column says that the cost of production and the cost of the produce does not balance

is the problem of the Kerala agriculture.(The real reason for this is not analyzed ).

Mooriyad and Kunjan Pulayan:- Kunjan Pulayan ,V.V ayyappan and Vargheese

Thoduparambil ,Madayikkonam Raju are among the 10000 farmers of Mooriyad

Mekhala.The pattern from the time of Sakthan Thamburan was through canal irrigation

for entire Mooriyad area of 11000 Acres. This existed till 1984.In 1984 ,a new bund and

bridge was created by the Kerala Government and for that they brought sand but no canal

was made .By this process the fields are now under water just by a single rain and

became uncultiviable.The fields which were useless became places for making

bricks. Now only 7000 Acres remain. The farmers want their farming operations and their

fields back so that they can live in self-sufficient style of food production as before. In the

battle between the Farmer and government ,Government agreed to some plans but the

promises were not fulfilled by the successive officers de to various reasons. After 25 years

,the paddy in the fields are under water with the first rains. The 80 lakhs which the Govt

had allotted for Mooriyad reformation has been lapse .Raja the farmer has 70000 Rs as

debt in agricultural operations .He says ,before the Government say “Everyone to the

fields ,they should see the 10000 farmers here who wants to go to the fields”.Varghese

Thoduparambil asks:- The Government and officials who cannot make profit from 7000

acre of fields ,can protect the 2.76 lakhs hectare of paddy fields in Kerala is impossible”.

All the operations which the Government had done after destroying the canals of Sakthan

Thamburan ,to improve the Trichur Kol Mekhala had been failures and detrimental to the

agriculture of the area.Vellayani fields and its loss of agriculture is pointed out as an

example. According to K.K.koduMuhammad (Secretary Trichur Kol Krishi

Sahakaranasamgham)unless the cost of paddy is revised according to the times ,the paddy

farmer can withstand all unfavorable situations. This is proved by the words of Dr

P.Yagin Thomas ,statistics department of Kerala Uty..An agricultural laborer gets a

mean 600 Rs per month in 1983 and 2003 it is mean 6000 Rs.It is a 10 times increase.But

the cost of rice in this 10 yr period is 274 % or 2.75 times only. In the beginning of 1980s

for one Kg paddy the cost was 50 paisa and the amount a laborer got was 5 Rs according

to kol farmers of Trichur.In 2009 the cost of paddy is 12 Rs and the agricultural laborer

has to be paid Rs 350.

The production of paddy in Kuttanad is 5 tones/hectare .For each ton 11000 Rs and for 5

tons Rs 55000 is the gain.

Preparation of field,kummayam,sowing,fertilizers,removing other grass etc,pest control,

and all the other production operations need Rs 19000.Balance 36000 Rs.This is for the

person who has the field for himself. After the pattakkoli ,for those who do not own the

field ,the gain is even less. Half of the farmers are now such paattam farmers and not

owners. For one hectare paattakooli is from 17500-30000 Rs.Paattakrishi people are

agricultural laborers.

The mean production of Trichur Kol fields is 2 tons per Acre. According to current price

of paddy the gain is 22000 Rs /Acre.

Ploughing(600),making varambu(600)Sowing(300)Cost of

seed(850)fertilizer(2500)Pullumarunnu(1600)protection of

plant(800)Reaping(2000)Transportation(8000 and total expenditure is Rs 10000 .The

gain is thus only Rs 12000.This is much less for a paattam krishikaaran.Most of the

farmers in Trichur Kol mekhala is having only less than I acre land .(What is the reason

for this ?This is not analyzed by the article )

In Palghat district are the most number of farmers and the condition is the same. The only

difference is in the expenditure of labour.Here the cost of labor is much less .By the

advent of the Thozhilurappy programme that is fast changing. Unless the cost of paddy is

increased to at least Rs 20 ,the farmer will never be out of debts is the view of

C.K.Ramachandran ,the awardee of Nelkathir Puraskara.

Oct 20 Tuesday 2009.page 4:-

Only if the seed is good there will be sprouting .The seed given by the state seed

authority does not sprout. It has become a common feature. In this August ,in Trichur

Vadakkanchery this was repeated. The seed given was “Uma”to the model production

project Gaalasa and the seed which was wetted to sprout remained as such .Trichur Kol

fields in Arimbur and Jubily padavu this repeated. Therefore farmers had to purchase

seeds from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

Till 20 yrs ago there were two pooval farming in Trichur Kol fields .The first pooval is

with sowing seeds in the land and then making Njaaru(new plants)and this is called

Njaattadi.Now the availability of land for making njattu planting is less due to

construction works and filling of njattu fields and also due to lack of awareness of how to

do this among the new generation farmers. The first pooval is sowing in September and

reaping in December. The second pooval is sown in January and reaped in April.

The mattathriveni,annapoorna seeds are not available now. Both agricultural university

and the seed authority do not know about the problem of seeds when farmers raise the

problem in common meetings .The farmer with his individual facilities can do only one

pooval farming. The second pooval gives the food protection of the state. The seed and

fertilizer has to be given by the state if this has to be carried out. The reaping machine

should be made available in time. The reaping machine from Tamil Nadu is brought at a

rate of Rs 2000 per hour rent. Even for one pooval the farmers are running around for

laborers and for machines. The Government promised to give 20 machines and this

promise has not materialized.

In Kuttanad 1.10 lakh hectares paddy cultivation is there.6 lakhs farmers depend upon

agriculture alone for livelihood there. In the 90’s the productivity was 2.24 per hectare

and now it is 4.5 ton. That is a positive sign. But this productivity is not pertaining to

paddy alone. Paddy cultivation has declined vertically since the last two decades. These

areas depend on nature for cultivation .The problem of labor is severe in Kuttanad.In

1991 there were 11.3 farmers and 57.13 agricultural laborers in Kuttanad.Now the

agricultural laborers have reduced to 1/3rd.Machines are required for all agricultural

operations because of lack of agricultural labourers.In Kuttanaad 35000 laborers are

needed for reaping but there are only 10000 now. And the use of machines was suspended

by the party of these labourers.This increased food problem and lead to rebellion.Now the

labor unions are slowly understanding that either machines should be used or ,the

number of agricultural laborers should be increased. If both are not permitted how can

the agriculture be carried out and the food problem of the people be solved ?The owners

of farms are now giving their fields for paattam .It is by these circumstances the majority

of Kuttanad became paattabhoomi.

The storage facilities should be looked into. If the reaped paddy is immediately not

stored it will sprout and become useless. The collected rice has to be given its price

immediately to solve problems of the farmers. The farmers have to wait for 3 to 4

months or longer to get their due .In Trichur Adaat farmers bank used to purchase paddy

in the fields itself and pay the farmer in the field itself. But after that when Suplyco came

the story became grave. For quickening the payment co-operative societies were activated

and Government induced interest-less loan schemes through them. That is not success in

many places. Though in word 80 % of the cost of paddy is to be given as loan ,without

interest ,this time several co-operative societies did take the interest .

A model was created by Palghat co-operative bank .they gave interest-free loan to

farmers and its project for storage of paddy became a model for entire state. In 2009-10

economic year the bank gave 25 crore Rs for the first pooval .The loan was given through

the primary co-operative banks. For one pooval the maximum of 50000 Rs will be given

as loan. The time for repayment is 6 months. If not possible to pay by that period ,a

interest of 7 % is taken. The farmers who take the loan gets insurance protection by

National Insurance company and the premium is paid by the bank and not by farmer. For

those who give back the loan in time a second loan for a second pooval is given. Even if

supply co fails to give the cost of paddy in time ,if one shows the receipt of having given

the paddy to the supply co the 80 % promised of the cost of paddy was given by the bank

and in that way the Palghat Bank showed a model to the state. By the interest-free loan

distribution paddy cultivation increased in 4500 hectares more and production increased

from 2.19 lakh ton to 2.5 lakh ton. This is recorded in the data of the bank.

After paddy cultivation when the fields are immersed in water doing a organic fish

farming ,especially prawn etc is a way of livelihood for farmers. From 10 acres within 8

months 4.85 Rs worth prawns are cultivated according to Kuttanad development

authority Executive Director Fr Thmas Peeliyaani.From the same field per Acre 2 tons

paddy is also available .Since this is organic paddy the cost is 15 Rs per Kg.For one acre

30000 Rs .Reducing the cost of production from this(Rs 18000)the gain is 12000 for the

farmer. In a experimental basis fish and prawn were cultivated in 50 acres of land this

year.

Kuttanaad Package:- 1840 crore Rs is promised for Kuttanad package. The Central

ministry gave the permission but after 13 months ,it has not been sanctioned by State

Govt.This package was recommended by Swami Nathan committee. The first complaint by

the state was that the center is not sanctioning it and when it was sanctioned the

complaint was that the center is taking vengeance on state. The chief minister said 75 %

of sanctioned amount has to be taken by State Govt and that is a vengeance by the center

on state .The opposition party said that below 5 crores is the share of state Government

and the rest is central share .This argument went on while the farmers were suffering the

damage to their paddy fields and their food ,after the summer rains of 2008 March. To

have the package done successfully the different departments like

agriculture,irrigation,revenue,industry,tourism and forestry has to co-operate as a

team. But the problem is that such a co-operation is not there in the ministry or

departments. The Prosperity committee under chief minister continues as a decorative

committee. The advice to make a committee under chief secretary is not fulfilled. Now

everything is done by a high official in Agricultural department and a official in

deputation from the forestry department.276.5 crores project was submitted and 50 crore

was sanctioned .Of this the break up is ,

4.91 crore for production of seeds (seed authority)

50 lakh for forestation of Paathiraamanal island ( To department of finance )

12 crore for Onaattukara paddy cultivation development

4.5 crore for farming of Ellu(gingili)

18 crore for machinery

15 crores for fishery and animal husbandry

The irrigation department is in the process of making their own project for 1100 crores

85 crores for development of coconut farming and 27.3 crore for vegetable farming is

allotted.

The package has no participation from the people .though the regional participation is

needed it has not been sought for.

The same day on page 6 we find the news of the wetlands of Mananthawady being

converted to construction sites by real estate people. Saying that paddy farming is not cost

effective first to cash crops and then to filling of farmlands for construction work is the

trend that we see here .For a person without a house, for the sake of constructing a house a

maximum of 5 cent of field was allowed to be filled .But this law is being misused for

major construction projects. In Thirunelli resort construction is being done at the expense

of fields. The biodiversity areas of ecological importance are thus being rapidly

destroyed. the wetlands near Panamaram puzha has to be protected and for that the people

had approached concerned officials .This is a tributary of Kabani river. There are several

sites of breeding of cranes in these wetlands .Influencing people like Panchayath

secretary, Agricultural officers and representatives of farmers etc who are in the field

protection samithi,such atrocities are being done. The custom of making use of the

samithy for easy availability of sanction for construction work is increasing in north

Wynad .the first process is to plant coconut and betel nut tree ands make the field look like

a garden land and then get sanction.

In Eramangalam Canoli canal remains of butchery, of chicken ,from hotel and cool bar

,barber shop has become a health problem and the nearby wells and tanks also has

pollution of water .Jaundice,Typhoid,Ratfever etc are more if this continues and such

cases have been reported from Veliyankode,eramangalam .Perumpadappu block P.H.C

Co-coordinator Skaria is reporting such cases and health department is seeking help from

police to prevent pollution of the canal.

In chittoor the first pooval was lost in monsoon floods but no help was given by

Government .The reason was if in a limit of one Krishibhavan ,25 acre of paddy is lost

,then only that part is considered as suffering from flood problem .This did not exceed the

amount so defined and farmers lost the help from Government. The farmers of Nalleppilly

also expected the help but in vain. In kuttippallam,kuppayyan

challa,koundankulam,Nalleppilli ,kanakkampaara areas due to rains the njattadi were

submerged and destroyed. Village officer and Krishi officer has to give a report after

visiting the area of loss. The farmers took them there and gave the request for help. The

vehicle charge paid by the farmers was lost. The agricultural department said that only

those requests of farmers where the amount of loss is as defined by the government

should be included in the Prakrithikshobha durithaswasa project. The societies of farmers

of the area are thus rebellious to the department. The Karshaka congress Chittoor block

committee has asked for relief for all farmers who have suffered the loss whether it is

under the defined parameters of krishi department or not .

Page 8 of the same day reports a positive agricultural picture from Raajaakkad

Raajakmaari panchayath.This area had changed its pattern of farming to Elam and

vegetables like plantains and sugarcane and cattle feed grasses from paddy .Now it is

returning back to traditional paddy cultivation. This is due to co-operative efforts of the

panchayath.There had been about 560 acres of fields with two pooval farming here.the

change in climate,lack of labourers,lack of production were reasons for the change to

cash crops earlier. By this paddy fields decreased to 90 acres .when awareness of ecology

problems ,water problems and food problems came ,under the leadership of Panchayath

president P.Ravi people started to come back to paddy cultivation.Lst year the help for

buying seeds and fertilizers was provided. By the job availability project ,the canals were

cleaned and water for irrigation was enough. New irrigation tanks were made .In dry areas

plastic water conservation and storage facilities provided for collecting rain water All

these could reduce water problems and now the area is again 500 acres of paddy farming

.The main fields

Of Kumbhappaara,Manjakkuzhi,Njerippaalam,Kooraappaallipady.Mullan

thandu,Kulappaarachaal,Kuravila city ,Rajakumari,Kandathil paalam are now getting the

facilities of the project. Help for ploughing,buying seeds and for reaping ,and buying

machines for reaping etc are under the project plan .The roads were constructed to the

fields so that traffic for the reaped paddy is easy. Same day on page 7 we find that the loss

by the state Governments Thozhilurappu podiatry per year is 3.65 crore Rupees (report

from Kasarkod)and destruction of Kandal forests and wetlands by a private person for

prawn farming was prevented by the forest department in Payyannur Kunjimangalam

Changurichaalil .The prawn bund was being constructed using J.C.B by the private

person .

In Kalyasseri the first pooval was done and majority was pathiru and this was more in

fields were the high productive seeds like Uma and Aiswarya was sown.3/4th of paddy

had no seed in it when reaped and was only pathiru.There was worm infestation also

.Kalyasseri,Morazha,Paappinisseri areas have extensive Mundaka farming .The first

pooval was done in between that .The seeds were given by krishibhavan .The farmers

did not get even 20 % of the total expenditure on their farming operations.

October 21 Wednesday 2009. page 4.

About coconut gardens according to Skaria pillai of Nallepilly ,the maximum yield from

a garden is mean 100 coconuts .And the mean for the state is only 30 ,Nallepilly being

the best coconut garden in the state. Even if we take that 100 coconuts as mean

production and 80 trees per acre the maximum per year is 8000 nuts .With cost of three

Rs for one nut it is 24000 Rs.In an year one can take 8 times coconut produce.

The kooli for climbing :-8-10

Kooli for cutting coconut-5000

Kooli for chumad and pothikkal ,fertilizer,watering,and kila etc make 12000 -15000

expenditure .And thus one years gain is only 10000 Rs .The farmers of kerala are only

such namesake farmers who get not more than 10000 Rs per year. therefore to live with

coconut farming alone is out of question. From June 1 to December the demand for tender

coconut is less .In other seasons it is better to sell tender coconuts which give more value

than mature nuts. The coconut farmers do interim produce in their gardens and live with

that .The people who give the trees for liquor production also has gains. In Chittor and

Anthikkad this has happened .But in Anthikat the disease of the coconut tops affected the

process. For a tree given to liquor production every year Rs 1200 or more is obtained but

this is only for a few farmers. This is three times gain more than selling mature

coconuts. The interim farming is done with nutmeg ,cocoa etc .Some also prefer

rubber. For 2000 nutmegs trees ,17000 Rs /year/tree is the gain of Kerakesari award

winner Thachapilly Aravindakshan in Triprayar.In kasargod bheemanadi paalamattathil

Sebastian’s view(another kerakesari award winner)rubber is best and he has made a

mixture of rubber,vanilla,cocoa,pepper,pine apple,plantains,betelnut tree, and beans in 15

acre of coconut garden as interim produce to make his garden more productive and cost

effective.

In Kuttiadi the majority of coconut seeds are collected .This time only 1,65000 seeds

were there. Last year it was 1,45000.The fever of the farmers there which has made pains

in hands and feet has caused some fear in the minds of people .

When these negative results are being reported there is a strong positive response from

Palghat Srikrishnapuram farmer Sankaran Nambuthiri.He has a garden land of 3 and a

half acres only .He says it yields coconuts to lead a respectable contended life according

to him. He has been doing organic farming of traditional style even before such a thing

and the zero budget farming were ever got popularity. He never uses chemical fertilizers

or pesticides in his garden. Even for the rubber in his garden land he does not use

chemicals. From one acre he gets one lakh gain per year for rubber. He does tapping, taking

milk, and sheet etc by himself and do not depend upon any other person for such jobs .The

remaining 2 and a half acres have coconuts,betelnut trees,jathi or

nutmeg,vanilla,coffee,cocoa and is a mixture of farming .The traditional way of doing

farming by oneself reduced the cost of labor into 1/3rd. He do not cut the shrubs etc in

his gardenland.He just crushes them with a stick when they overgrow. there is no kila or

making thadam etc .The patta,chakiri,madal etc or waste products are deposited in the

garden itself so that they become degenerated and become organic manure .The

jeevamritha which is a mixture of cowdung,cows urine, powdered beans and starker is

sprinkled once a month in the entire garden land. For this he has made a tank in the garden

which can contain 12000 liters.Sankaran Namboothiri points out that a farmer has to love

the earth and the farming and not the money which the product brings .Then everything

will be solved by itself.(This is probably what we have to learn and practice

first.Thiruvalluvar also has said the same. If we practice that we can live with agriculture

alone and that was the life of our ancestors which made us the best agrarian economy in

the world in prehistoric/historic times before independence. Where did we loose that ?And

how ?Try to find answers for that and solve the problem. Do not find fault with some one

else. Find out ones own faults and correct .We are then saved. This is what I really want to

convey by this book .Thanks to Sankaran Namboothiri for voicing that opinion and for

the five people who made the report in Mathrubhoomi for highlighting this sensible

opinion. The five Panjayathana are George podipara,Aneesh

Jacob,S.D.Venukumar,K.R.Prahladan,and K.Rajesh kumar).

Same day on page 7 is a news that in Pulloor ,the paddy Uma seed is produced in plenty

on a hilltop which was leveled in Pullor Edamunda.Five years back the hill was leveled

.For years vegetables were grown there. This year when on experimental basis paddy was

sown it was a success. The farmer Krishna is also doing farming of gourds ,sweet potato

,tapioca etc on this hill .

In Monacha fields which was not used for years women of the area did farming in co-

operative basis .The seed Athira was used. The farming was done under

Kudumbashree.The women had no fields of their own and took fields for paattam and

made good produce.

Like Srikrishnapuram another positive note is from K.Kunhimamu of Kannur

Kaattampalli kaipaad.Kaippad or karippad is the field of rice .For 40 yrs these were

uncultivated .The co-operative farming done in 10 acres of this fields by Kunjimamu and

his team is revolutionary. He is the president of Kattampalli project area agricultural

farmer-laborer union. There is 515 acres of land which is left uncultivated for 43 years

.This is in Chelora,Naaarath,Puzhathi,Munderi,Kolachery,Kuttiatur,and Chirakkal

panchayath.50 people did co-operative farming there. This was done as a lesson for those

who say that agriculture is not costeffective.43 yrs back the shutters of kattampalli project

were permanently closed saying that it is the salt water from the sea which is making it

impossible for taking three poovals from the fields. The purpose was to take poovals all

round the year. But the effect was opposite. When salt water from sea was prevented the

mud stopped entering the fields and the ground became rocky and hard. And dirt

accumulated in fields. Only when natural tides and entry of cheru(dirt from sea)come and

make the land fertile the produce will be good.This was pointed out by farmers and the

shutters were allowed to be opened by their repeated requests.Kunjimamu has cultivated

10 acres. For that 30000 Rs was spent.23500 Rs and the seeds were given back from

Government. He expects produce of 1.25 lakhs from the fields. When he didn’t get people

to do labor in the field like planting saplings etc he used labor from all the members of

his house and thus the production cost was minimal. This was what was done in old time

farming of Cheranad and he has repeated it. This is a revolutionary eye-opener. In 6 acres

he has Orkkayamma seeds ,in 3 acres Kuthiru and in one acre vyttila 6.Since there is

enough ferric iron in the red soil no other fertilizer is needed according to

Kunjimamu.(Mathrubhoomi 25.10.2009).The old ancestor ,Kannur Nambuthiri who

wrote a book on agriculture in 18th century ,was from this very place and he might be

blessing the Kattampali project and its charioteer Kunjimamu for the love and respect he

is showing to agriculture and land and labor on a co-operative basis.

The same day it is reported that in Aroor mandala ,western parts Karinila ,reaping of

paddy has started .2000 acres were cultivated.Pokkali,chedivirippu and Vytt 6 seeds were

sown. Only in a very few fields were Uma,and jyothy and the new HY variety sown. The

farmers used traditional chedivirippu and pokkali which are suited for karinila.There is a

view among the civil supplies that these traditional produce need not be taken and only

the HY variety will be bought from farmers. If the decision of civil supply is like that ,the

producers will be in difficulty. But ,the red tapism of supply co in such matters should be

analyzed and channelised in the correct way to enhance food production in the

country. The attitude of supply co is detrimental to production increase in the country .It is

against national and state interest and against the interest of farmers as well.

Oct 30 .2009 Letters to the editor column has given a few remarks and opinions from the

readers about the series on agricultural scenario.Fr Thomas piliyanickal points out that

seeds like jyothi and uma have lost their high yielding capacity .His suggestion to have a

rice park in each village panchayath if done with proper co-operation from people of the

panchayath will work out .If it is dependent on Govt funds it will never happen and even

if it happens it will not succeed. He mentions a very pertinent point about the food

security based on production in other states is not permanent and that methods to produce

enough rice for Kerala is possible .But the method he suggests is involving the

Government .In each Panchayath ,if there are co-operative work with all people ,this can

be started and the method of getting loans and getting into debts and paying interests is

being encouraged by Govt and it is in the long run detrimental to farmers as well as the

rice farming activity as such .He thinks that the responsibility to feed the people of

Kerala is not that of the farmers alone .And the society and Govt should take that

responsibility.

It has been a vicious circle that is created by individual property rights of Kol puncha

fields and other fields of paddy growing areas. Because paddy growing cannot be done on

an individual basis and the labourers,small land holders as well as Govt is now

understanding this fact ,though a little bit late.

C.A .Sheela from Panamaram strongly criticizes the views of Agricultural minister that a

culture of agriculture should be created. No help had been given to farmers of Wynad

though the minister says it had been given, she adds. She say s when the produce was

destroyed in 2008 officials of agricultural dept came and looked at the loss and report

given but no help came from Govt.That means the Govt is still following the same code

of conduct as noticed by my father in early sixties (Kerala Legislative assembly

proceedings ).Madhavannunni from Ongallur ,Pattambi says the reason for the problems

of agricultural field is the total avoidance of age-old seeds ,cattle, traditional knowledge of

agriculture .They were not only avoided but destroyed en root by the new reforms. And

from a farmer who loved the fields ,he had been converted to one who fights with the

fields. The productivity decrease with such a process. Now farmers are wasting time with

papers and requests in the verandas of numerous Govt offices for grievances which will

never be solved by such Govts.He says, There is only one method for solution and food

safety. The traditional methods of agriculture were formed after experience of millennia

with geographical, seasonal knowledge and knowledge of soil and biodiversity and water

resources .Know that and then with the modern technological and scientific knowledge

strike a balance and go forward. I think his is a practical and sound suggestion for a strong

agro economy in Kerala ,the best place where rains, land and other conditions are best for

paddy growing in the South India.

Trying to grow more and create a green revolution in places where a climate and

resources for good production does not exist(in dry land )is a process of development in

such areas. But neglect of an already available land with best climatic conditions for grain

production, and converting that for other purposes etc is a great negligence and culpable

crime of first order. Both the ruling and the opposition leaders and the people of all

panchayaths should sit together and find out solutions in each region/locality .And the

peoples participation, love of land and agriculture and expertise and experience in

agriculture is the best culture of agriculture. Regain that culture and succeed together is

the best motto. Government should see the priority value of food production and the

timely help needed for success of farming and should raise to the occasion and reduce red

tapisms .And different deprtments being concerned in agricultural activity they should

sort out their problems between them. It is the responsibility of the Government to help

people. And it is the responsibility of people to co-operate and increase production and

become selfsufficient.No one is free from responsibility. And blaming each other is not

solution to problem. Conducting fruitful discussions so that the problem is solved and

nation progresses is the goal.

TOI Monday Dec 7th 2009:-
What about the climatic changes in other parts of India ,when the kanikonna has started to bloom in October itself (not in the usual April /May)and the reptiles and birds has started to hatch earlier ?
We will look at Darjiling.Usually flowers bloomed there in February and now they bloom one month early in January and the thousands of migratory birds which come miss the season. They are the pollinating agents and due to early flowering chance of pollination is gone. A few years ago in Kurseong and Tindharia thousands of sparrows and swallows came but now only mosquitoes and flies are there. The sathpathri(Saipatri with 100 petals)which bloomed in hills do not bloom now. The Gauthali birds do not chirp noisily and apple of Kullu valley has shrunk due to want of frost .Ginger and oranges are not growing to their great potentials.(10 yrs ago they did).The marigolds of Nepal during Tihar and Bhaitika(Diwali and Bhaidhooj of Nepal)grow less. Steady drying up of watersources,rare bouts of snowfalls are happening which is dangerous to their economy and tourism as well.
In Himachal Pradesh ,Shimla the glaciers are melting .The climate change brought down the number of good chilling hours for a good apple crop from 1200 to 800 hours. Now Kullu people requires AC and fans to sleep .Global warming is just one aspect of the problem. Large scale construction, rapid increase in number of population, as well as vehicles have compounded the problem according to the scientists. Deforestation reduced green cover of hills. A vicious circle is created by manmade disasters. According to Dr S.S.Samant,scientist in charge of G B Pant institute a drought-like situation can happen soon .Himachal Pradesh agricultural uty at Palampur says that in 30 years ,growing apples will not be possible in Himalaya belt of Kinnaur,Shimla and Kullu districts. According to senior scientist G.C.Kunial in 1965 the apple belt was found at height of 1000 meters above sea level .Now it has receded to 2000 meters. Apple orchards abundant in Bajaura(1000 meters)until some years back can now be found only in Katrain(2000 meters)near Manali.Vice chancellor of Palampur uty (Dr Tej Pratap Singh) says farmers are shifting from apples which used to pump Rs 1700 crores into local economy, to other types of crops. And he adds it is not just apples but all other crops are in danger.

In west coast the spawning season of the small kili meen is changed. In Karnataka the lost Madhuka bourdillioni is rediscovered and scientists are afraid that it may not survive the climate changes that we are facing in the western ghats.In 1393 when the religion and faith of the Parsis of Iran was threatened by the spreading Islamisation a group of them came to India to protect their fire (which they called the Iran Shaw).They landed in Sanjan in Valsad district of Gujarat coast. This fire was later shifted to Udwada a coastal town near Sanjan in 1742.Now the Arabian sea is about to gobble up the holy fire and its seat .Prof Vyas Pandey ,teacher at Anand Agricultural uty says an increase in temperature by 1 to 3 degree has decreased wheat yield from 3546 to 2646 kg per hectare. In Gujarat ,the wheat production dipped to 8.31 % due to various reasons. In Sourashtra production of Kesar mangoes went down by 10-15% this year.In 2008 the December temperature increased 2-3 degree C ,and in February 2009 it increased 5 degree which delayed flowering of mango trees. Many trees did not bear fruit this year due to this. Maximum and minimum temperatures had gone up across a state which is already in hot state according to Dr Pandey.Though the increase is marginal it has effected drastically the rainfall and crop pattern according to him.
The drop in coconut production was due to salinity ingress ,a result of scanty rainfall for the last 7 years. The Junagadh-Mangrol belt showed 30-40 % dip in production. Salinity ingress along the 1600 Km coastline of Gujarat affected 1500 villages until last year.CSPC(coastal salinity prevention cell)say farmers are shifting to cash crops like BT cotton and salinity-tolerant crops.(Yesterday there was a news in Mathrubhoomi that due to the peoples revolt the authorities have broken the Viyyam Kaayal bund protectors and allowed saline water to enter the area and all the fresh water in the kaayal was lost and the paddy will suffer this time. The people instead of being told of the problems of such a procedure and long term dangers are being appeased by the authorities for a short-term escape from problems is what I feel from this.)Gujarat ,according to Priyadarshi Shukla ,a member of Intergovernmental Panel of climate change (1PCC) and an IIM (A)professor ,is the 4th largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG)in the country behind only Maharashtra ,UP and AP.An average Gujrati’s greenhouse gas footprint is 3.16 tones against the national per capita average of 1.9 tones.
By 2020 India has decided to cut 25 % of emission. Along with that we should also take a decision to preserve as much of our traditional greenery, cultivation patterns and food production for a healthy level of subsistence .This has to start at every village with each citizen of India and spread to all nation and world as a model .Then we are saved. A few years ago I had written an article in the Express daily from Trichur about how one can undermine the prediction of Malthus by making more production in food and agriculture and cutting short population .And with a good climate only this is possible. And for a good climate we need to know how to preserve our nature. Nature is needed for tourism industry as well. If we exploit nature just to make it concrete jungles ,with our over enthusiasm to have a piece of land and a hut/flat for each one ,there wont be tourism also in the country. The old monuments, the peaceful pristine nature, and the basic amenities for tourists we have to give through our own regional and cultural peculiarities ,minimizing destruction ,minimizing constructions and reducing pollution .Each village should co-operatively come forward for this .

Weather and global warming

The weather makers and global warming

“The spotlight thus falls on political elites, administrative mandarins, and scientific

advisors. Here is their genuine opportunity ,not just to act with political maturity but to

take a giant leap on behalf of humanity. Can they break with all the vested interests ,the

inertial forces, the conventional wisdoms, which are the historical lot of those in power

,even while these have now lost all value ? Through some Damascene vision might they

at this late hour provide not only redemption for themselves ,but for the rest of humanity

too ? One thing ,though, is sure: Little time is left.” (Mark Levine and David Cromwell

June 2007 .Preface Surviving climate change .The struggle to avert global

catastrophe. Pluto press 2007)

The major trends that are shaping our future are recognized as the food trends, the energy

and climate trends, economic trends ,transportation trends, health and social trends and

conflict and peace trends. The year 2004 was a record breaker of expansion of world

economy at a 5 % rate and consumption and production of everything from grain to meat

and steel and oil rose to heights. The sudden shift was summed up by the achievement of

China in steel production. The global grain harvest shot up by 8 % and rises in

consumption and change in diet pattern occurred. By this the grain reserves became very

low at the end of the year leaving the year vulnerable to a food shortage and high prices if

the 2005 harvests were hurt by adverse weather. Total carbon emissions and atmospheric

carbon dioxide accelerated and 2004 was the fourth warmest year ever recorded and the

10 warmest years in last 120 years were after 1990.Rise in temperature melted the polar

icecaps, and glaciers .Thinning the ice of arctic is happening and by 2100 the arctic ocean

is predicted to be ice-free. The collapse of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica
causes a rise in sea level. The worlds ecological system is in danger as human forces are

impinging on coral reefs ,tropical forests and other critical natural systems.1/4th of

mammals and ½ of the world’s wetlands are already lost to us. By the 2004 December

Tsunami ,the importance of the preservation of wetlands and the coral reefs which are

key ecosystems of the globe were recognized. The severe damage to wetlands in the

name of development and also of coral reefs are pointed out as reasons for the calamity.

Grain harvest in 2004 was 2049 tons as against 800 tons in 1960.After the declining

Harvests of the five years (in previous 7 yrs)wheat was 11 5 more than the 2003 harvest.

United nations declared the year as international year of the rice. The rice demand always

outpaces its production and it is this one crop which actually gives awareness about a

pending food crisis. Rice is 20 % of the world’s energy supply in calories directly. Wheat

is 19 % and corn 5%.Since demand exceeded production since four consecutive years

china, India and Pakistan(major rice growers)pushed prices higher Global rice stocks

dropped .People are hungry not because of global shortage as such but by the lack of

regional sustenance farming and lack of purchasing power when prices go high. Hunger

kills more than 5 million children each year ,roughly one child every second(pp 22 Vital

signs 2005-2006 world watch institute)

Energy and climate trends:-

1 Fossil fuel use surges

2.Nuclear power rises once more

3.Global wind growth continues

4.solar energy markets booming

5.biofuel use growing rapidly

6 climate change indicators are on the rise. Like CO2 ,heat, glacier melting etc.

Economic trends :-

Global economy continue to grow

World trade rises sharply

Foreign direct investments inflow decline

Weather-related disasters near a record

Steel surging

The inflows of foreign direct investment from 1970-2004 show that there is a general

decline of investment from industrial countries. Is the industrialization a failure ?Or is it

that they are not investing globally?

The foreign direct investment from 1970-2004 (10 yr interval)billion 2003 dollars from

UNCTAD

Year Total Industrial countries Low/middle income countries
1970 50 37 14
1980 108 91 17
1990 271 222 49
2000 1471 1174 297
2004 601 315 286

Weather related disasters on record in 2004:-

105 billion pound economic loss due to natural disasters.Storms,tornados,floods,heat

waves, extreme cold waves.12000 people lost lives. December 2004 earthquake in

Sumatra and subsequent tsunami in Indian ocean sweeped away 280000 people in 11

countries in a matter of few hours and millions left homeless. In summer monsoons of

2004, 2200 people were killed in India, Nepal and Bengladesh.Dakka was submerged

under water for 40 %.China and Caribbean lost 2000 lives in summer floods. In Yangtze

basin 85 % of forest cover was clearcut,14 million people displaced in floods and 4.5

million Ha of cropland destroyed. Rain surged down barren slopes of Haiti and local

forests stripped for fuelwood.From 198 onwards 110 -205 events of severe floods

occurred the world over.Deforestation,erosion,irrigation interfering river drainage ,global

climatic changes and filling of wetlands and fields for construction works etc have all

contributed to this. Southern US and Caribbean was hit by a string of hurricanes in 2004

Charlie alone causing 20 million dollar loss. cyclones in Japan, landslides environmental

disasters were on the record in 2004.The economic loss in 2004 was 104.6 billion 2003

dollars which had a similar figure in 1998 (106.7).


Health and social trends:

Population continue to rise steadily

Number of refugees decline

HIV/AIDS crisis widening worldwide

Cigarette production dropped


Conflict and peace trends:-

Violent conflicts unchanged

Military expenditure surges

Peacekeeping expenditures soar high

Mixed progress on reducing nuclear arsenals

SPECIAL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES

1 Mammals on decline
2.Global ice melting increases
3.Wetlands dry up
4.Forest loss continues
5.Air pollution still big problem

MDG(Millennium development goals) are :-
1.Eradicate poverty and hunger
2.Achieve universal primary education
3.Promote gender equality and empower women
4.Reduce child mortality
5.Improve maternal health
6.combat HIV/AIDS ,malaria and other diseases
7.Ensure environmental sustainability
8.Develop a global partnership for development

In 1903,Sir Edgar Wallace called the atmosphere the great aerial ocean. It protects all

life, connects everything with everything else and has regulated our temperature for 4

billion years. The weather is what we experience every day. Climate is the um of all the

weathers over a certain period for a region or for the planet as a whole. The troposphere

of the earth which is 10 Km in height ,slightly above the Mt Everest, has only a little part

(bottom one third)of breathable air. Beyond that the strato,meso and thermosphere has no

breathable air.The keeling curve of CO2 concentration in ppm atop Mt Launa loa,Hawai

between 1958 -2000 showed a change from slightly less than 315 to over 370 .All these

carbon when it goes from atmosphere reaches carbon sinks ,including you and me, all

living things and ocean,soil,even rocks. That is the earth .The orbit of earth at present is

not very elliptical and there is only 6 % difference between January and July

temperatures. In one lakh years there is an orbital cycle of earth which changes the

intensity of sunrays reaching earth. Another cycle due to tilt on earths axis lasts 42000

years and a third shortest cycle changes in 22000-25000 years due to wobble of earth on

its axis. In this ,the earths axis shifts from pole star to Vega affecting intensity of

seasons. When Vega (Dhanishtaadi) marks true north winters will be terribly cold and

summers scorching hot. This was known through Milanchovich , to western world only

in 1941 .(This was so when Paithamaha wrote Vedangajyothisha in India)With sunspot

cycles of 11 years the earth temperature vary. More the sunspots more is the warming of

earth. But it does not affect the life on earth in dangerous proportions. The present

stratospheric cooling by ozone hole and tropospheric warming by increased greenhouse

gases is mainly manmade disasters due to industrial revolution. Today we face a rate of

change thirty times faster because the living things need time to adjust .Speed is

important as scale when it comes to climate change. For more than 10000 years human

Indian and Mayan calendars which sweeped of the great urban beings have been

deforesting earth. And a great flood in BC 3104 is recorded both in port city in the Rann

of cutch,Dwaraka .And the new cities developed in 3100 in Mesopotamia ,on its southern

end.

Now carbon,oil,solar energy are used indiscriminately and disproportionately which

had lead to the speeding up of the climate change and nine out of ten warmest years ever

recorded occurred since 1990.(pp70.we are the weather makers .The story of global

warming. Tim Flannery Penguin books 2006).

The rise in temperature had started in 1970 itself.1976 and 1998 had two rapid rises. The

1976 one occurred when scientists drilled the oldest coral porites in Mainana in pacific

nation of Kiribati.A shift in jet stream, changes as far as southern Australia and

Galapagos in pacific ocean on equator 1000 kms off south American coast recorded by

national geographic. In 1830 Darwin visited here. In 1977 the native finch perished in

draughts only 180 survived of the 1300.Of them 150 were males and tough competition

for mates in the spring and only the big beaked variety survived.1998 is tied up with El

Nino –La Nina cycle ,a 2-8 year long one which brings climatic changes.

El Niño means the new child, Christ coined by Peruvian fisher folk who noticed warm

currents during Christmas visiting the fishing grounds.La Nina is the new girl child that is

the cooling period in ocean of south America. La Nina phase has winds blowing

westward across pacific pushing warm surface water to coast of Australia and to its

north. Then the cold Humboldt current is able to surface off pacific coast of south

America carrying the nutrients that feed the prolific fishery in the world, the anchovetta.

El nino phase begin with weakening of tropical winds allowing warm surface water to

flow back eastwards overwhelming the Humboldt and releasing humidity to atmosphere

which brings floods to the normally arid Peruvian deserts. Droughts strike Australia and

south east Asia.El nino when severe devastate 2/3 rd of globe with droughts ,floods and

extreme weather.1997-98 was a severe El nino year. As greenhouse gases build up in

atmosphere we will experience persistent El nino like conditions. It is the bird

watchers, nature and animal watchers who have recorded the climate changes first. In

India it has a very long history. In England the first record is between 1736-1947 when a

family recorded the date the first frog and toad croaked on their estate every year .In 1850

no such records are there. Over the last 55 years over the globe the records are strong

.The species are shifting to the pole by an average of 6 KM per decade and retreated up

mountainsides at rate of 6.1 meter per decade .Spring activity has advanced 2.3 days per

decade. These trends accord with scale and direction of temperature increase by

greenhouse gas and is called global fingerprint of climate change.CO2 is driving nature

Polewards with a lash. Tiny marine organisms called copepods,nonmigratory species of

35 varieties of butterflies have changed habitat. The butterflies have perished in the

south. The tropical birds of costa rica low lands in last 20 years moved 18.9KM

northwards. Northern hemisphere seabird lay eggs on average 24 days earlier each

decade .Budding and flowering of plants is 1.4 -3.1 earlier per decade and this denotes

change inspring activity. Spring is warmer than it was 25 years ago. But number of cold

days in winter is unchanged. The winter moths therefore hatch upto 3 weeks before the

oak bear their first leaves, and the caterpillars can survive only 2-3 days without food,

and perish. Those that survive grow fast since no competition for food meaning birds

have less time to find them .Even the remotest rainforests face the threats of global

warming.The sub Atlantic plankton pool is the base of foodchain.They thrive even in

winter under the ice and the krill feed on them and complete their 7 year lifecycle. When

there is krill there is penguin. Since 1976 the krills decreased 40 % per decade. Emperor

penguin is half of what it was 30 years ago.Adelie penguin has declined by 70

%.Antarctic is frozen continent surrounded by immensely rich ocean. Arctic is frozen

ocean surrounded by land. And is home of 4 million people. In Alaska the winters are 2

-3 degree C warmer than 30 yrs ago. The thundra,the collared lemming, the reindeer

,polar beers ,nanuk,ivory gull of Canada all face threat of racial extinction by about

2050.And north polar cryosphere will vanish forever with unknown consequences of

climatic changes, all due to manmade greenhouse effect.

We Indians must know something about the protection of ocean and the coral reefs in it

too. Coral reefs yield 30 billion US dollars each year to people who have no other

resources to live. The citizens of five nations are protected by the fringing coral atolls

which stand between them and the invading seas. Destroying the fringing reefs ,you

destroy all the pacific nations just like bulldozing Holland’s dykes.The biodiversity of the

corals also is destroyed by that action. Corals are marine equivalents of south Africa’s

sand plains with great biodiversity. In 1857 Alfred Russell Wallace described coral

gardens,medusae,fishes and many other in Ambon Harbour and in 1990 none of them

exits. Just effluent ,garbage, butchered remains of animals and goats are described by

Tim Flannery.In 1997-98 El Niño, rain forests of Indonesia burned like never before.

Before that south western Sumatra had rich biodiversity of coral reefs.1997 saw red tide

in Sumatra coast due to minute organisms fed on iron in the smog of the fire. The smog

cloud over south east Asia in 2002 El nino was larger. About the size of US. It cut 10 %

sunlight heated lower atmosphere and ocean.Aqaculture and corals alike are devastated

from Indonesia to south Korea .Recovery is unlikely for these east Asian coral reefs.2004

,scientists visiting Myrmidon reefs off coast of Queensland for the 3 yr survey reported

they looked as if bombed. The reef crest was bleached leaving a forest of dead white

coral. only on deeper slopes did life survive. Before 1930 coral bleaching due to high

ocean temperature was not heard of. In 1970 it was small scale. In 1998 El nino it was

global dying. The great barrier reef was bleached 42 % in 1998 and 18 % suffered

permanent damage.2002 El nino killed 90 % of all reforming corals ,60 % of great

barrier reef was affected .In 2006 cyclone Larry came which destroyed 50000 homes in

Queensland and secured the reef for another year by its cooling effect on ocean water.

The golden frog of central American rain forests in costa rica is an example of loss of

species quoted. In April May alone the males surface and mate with the females. The last

male appeared in May 15th 1989 and no more of the race now exists. He was the first

victim of global warming recorded. We killed it with our reckless use of coal fired

electricity ,huge cars and causing global warming .

The gastric brooding frog of SE Queensland disappeared with in 6 years after its

discovery in 1973 by researchers who wanted to know how the female frog converted the

stomach into a nursery and delivered children through mouth. Amphibians face threat of

extinction by climate as well as by experimental science.

1960 the Sahel disaster of Africa:-This was a marginal rainfall area and regional more

rain and better soil allowing a living through fields and in dry lands a semi nomadic

camel herding life. The famines and droughts were common. And for decades the west

argued that the reason is the people themselves who overgraze the camels, goats and

cattle, gather firewood, destroy the covering vegetation, expose its dark soil and change

its albedo and so on. But all these were proven wrong by painstaking studies in US

between 1930-2000.The human –caused degradation was too small to trigger the climatic

shift. The rise in sea-surface temperatures of Indian ocean increasing greenhouse gases

was the real reason. The Indian ocean is the most rapidly warming ocean in the world and

as it warms the conditions that generate the sahelian monsoon weaken. The rainfall is

less. Food is less. People starved. From arid Africa (which generates ½ of global

dust)particles scatter, absorb light, lower temperature ,carry nutrients to ocean and distant

lands assisting in growth of plants, planktons and increase absorption of CO2.

In SW corner of west Australia rain fell during winter and get 100 cm annually. The

farming is done here. The wheat belt is here. vineyards also have come up. Before the

European settlements the southwest was blanketed in thick vegetation called Kwongan(as

konkan in India).Following rains the kwonkan become a vast wildflower garden and

several species are jammed in a single hectare.1829-1975,the first 149 years of European

settlement people cleared kwonkan for farmlands. From 1976 there is decrease in rainfall

and problems for agricultural economy. In 1960 the farmers with goal of clearing million

acres of kwongan scrub per year bulldozed and found only sterile stretches of sand and

the most unfertile soil underneath the natural vegetatin.The farmers did hydroponic

gardening .Drilled in their wheat, dusted the sterile sand with nutrients waited for the

never failing winter rains to come and water their seeds. By 2004 ,decades after nature

refusing to water, wheat growing shifted westwards replacing dairy farms
.
Winter rainfall has decreased and summer rainfall increased. Before the bulldozing the

vegetation was taking up salt brought by westerlies and every drop from heavens and salt

stayed in xalline form by them. But now ,when summer rains fell the salt from sea creep

up kill everything .The first sign is salty taste impervious sweet creeks. The water became

undrinkable. Streamside vegetation died converting within a decade into salty drains. The

perished farmers faced worst case of dry-land salinity .Neither science nor Government

has given any solutions and damage bill is in billions (pp 117 Tim Flannery)Perth is now

a thirsty city with 1.5 million people ,bankrupt wheat farmers trying to sell their fields

.Less winter rainfalls causes less water in Perth’s catchments Since 1975 rain falls in light

showers that soak into the soil and do not reach the dams at all. Now the Government is

planning to squeeze out groundwater from Gnangara mound destroying its biodiversity

also ,and to lay a desalination plant at cost of Australian dollar 350 million to suck ocean

water and remove saline from it. All the cities in Australia are facing water crisis of

some sort. The west coast of America also has water problems.

Most powerful El nino of 1997-98 the most powerful fatal hurricane in 200 years ,the

hottest and deadliest European summer on record(2003) the first south Atlantic hurricane

ever*(2002)unprecedented flooding in Mumbai (2005)worst storm season in US ,most

economically devastating hurricane Katrina (2005)and Monica ,the most powerful

cyclone ever recorded in Australia(2006) and Tsunami(2004) are eye-openers for

us. Warm water warm air and it carry extra heat .30 degree C air hold four times as much

hurricane fuel as air at 10 degree C.Since 1950’s the hurricanes have changed their

tracks. The example is the frequency of typhoons ravaging East China and Philippines

sea has decreased since 1976 but number increased in south China sea.

In Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal there were fewer typhoons which is good for millions

living near sea level in these regins.Dramatic decrease in number of cyclones in

subantartic ocean south of latitude 40 but a modest increase in Antarctic ocean is

seen.1996.97.98 consecutively US had hurricanes. In 1780 there was a great hurricane

which was severe. In 2004 storms returned .4 major tropical storms crossed Florida in

quick succession.

Katrina-Florida,Gulf of Mexico, New Orleans

Rita-Texas

Started as thunderstorms in warm waters off Bahamas, became tropical storm ,a group of

thunderstorms that circled until it developed a vortex.

In UK the recording of climate as records started in 1660, about 60 years after they had

contact with Indian subcontinent and its trade and commerce based on sea routes and

crop systems.1990’s was the warmest decade after that records began. The two nations

most disadvantaged by climate change are US and Australia.

In India, apart from Gujarat and Western Orissa there is less drought than 25 years

ago. Only NW India experiences heatwaves.2005 saw record monsoon rains and storms

in Mumbai and surrounding regions which brought devastating floods and damaged

offshore Mumbai high gas field.

Rising sea level.

2/3 people on earth live within 80 KMs of the coast. Even a modest rise of sea level

would be disastrous from Manhattan to Bay of Bengal. The Asian tsunami of 2004 gives

an indication of this. Netherlands is planning construction of superdykes ,Thames barrier

is being strengthened for prevention of further damages by such catastrophe. In

Bangladesh 1 million live within one meter of sealevel.( An island over which west

Bengal and Bangladesh were having problems of ownership has actually disappeared this

year).Thermal expansion of ocean, glacier ice melting lead to rise in

sealevels.Climatology is a science of prediction .From 2003 the Hadley center for climate

prediction is set up in England. Half of the energy generated after the world war 2 till

date since Industrial revolution has been consumed in last 20 years by human activity.

And it is too late to alter this situation in our world. But we have time still to avoid

disaster and reduce probability of dangerous climatic upheavals and its effects.

We can limit the carbon dioxide emission. protect nature,trees,biodiversity,water

resources, fields and forests with wild life and resort to more simpler and traditional

lifestyles to reduce consumption of energy .This is what Gandhiji was advocating all

along as a visionary .

Methane release from seashoreIce crystals trap molecules of methane.Clathrates(Latin-

caged) is the name for this ice which burns and contain gas under high pressure. When

brought to surface these burn ignited. There is massive deposits of this in the seabed.368

trillion cubic meters of natural gas is recoverable in the world. The ocean floor has

10000-42000 trillion cubic meters compared to this energy. If this is touched and released

colossal bursts of methane energy will happen. The entire planet will be destroyed and all

species extinct. That will be the end of civilization .Australia, the most urbanized nation

on earth is having climate variations due to high energy consumption of its cities. The

people all over and scientists all over warn about these consequences yet our local

administrators are ready to explore ocean floor, drill it for treasures, bulldozer it for

destroying old sethus under it or for getting oil and gas below it (as in Kochin). The

methane energy of the caged pressurized variant is lurking below to devour everything in

a catastrophic final deluge and man is foolish and selfish not to see this danger even after

predictions by climatic experts.

Ozone is the earth’s sunscreen shielding us from 95 % of UV radiations. In 1928

industrial chemists invented HFCs for refrigeration, propellants in spraycans,in

airconditioning units.1985 the use of it was 1.8 million tons. They increased chlorine

levels five times the previous levels. The hole it punched in ozone layer south of 40

degree latitude exposed to them to skin cancer (southern chile,Argentina,Tasmania,south

island of New Zealand)Even near the equator the chances of skin cancer increased.25

years ago chance of getting melanoma was 1/250.Today it is 1/84 due to ozone

depletion. Immune system and eyes are damaged by UV rays. Early cataract can occur

.1987 Montreal protocol addressed the global pollution problem successfully. In 1997 the

Kyoto protocol aimed at reduction of co2 emission by 5 %.But four nations failed to

ratify it, including USA and Australia. Because supplying energy was profitable.

Emissions trading creates a new currency called carbon dollar. Australia had the highest

per capita greenhouse emission of any industrialized country ,25 % higher than USA.At

present the Kyoto protocol is the only international treaty to combat climate change.

Can we find solutions to problem of global warming while continuing to use fossil fuels?

Carbon is locked in coal for hundreds and millions of years and will remain there for

more millions more if we refuse to dig it up, just for the sake of profits.

How to solve ?

Wind power and turbines is used by Denmark .In China wind farms contribute to global

electricity grid.3000 megawatt of wind power is enough to power a small city. Solar hot

water, thermal and photovoltaic cells is another alternative suggested. The average home

requires only 1.4 kilowatts of power to run a photovoltaic cell .It operates best in summer

and one need generate only what one needs. Japan is using this. Sun is a nuclear power at

a distance. Earth based nuclear power is an alternative choice .From 2004 May the world

is considering this .It does not emit carbon dioxide. India has reactors under

construction. China also is seriously considering this option. Geothermal reservoirs of

molten mantle of earth is suggested by some. The decarbonizing the grid is decentralizing

power and empowering individuals.

We need not wait for the govt but can start doing it at home.

Use solar energy.

Buy a hybrid fuel car.

Select a aircraft that fly lower so that co2 consumption is less (4%) and average flight

time over Europe vary less than a minute.

If we can cut our personal emission by 70 % ,the schools,companies,farms etc can also do

that at a higher level

Start a movement in the locality

Use handmade /herbal/natural things

Use organic manure and protect the livestock

And many others depending upon the region located.

Use biofuel for energy needs .Biofuels are derived from biomass ,that is living

organisms, and metabolic products. Like hay,corn,plant leaves,grass,dung and urine of

animals etc.They are better than fossil fuels(coal,oil,gas) because burning biofuel does

not increase the carbon dioxide in atmosphere. The slash-burn agriculture and the

bioproducts of domestic animals for energy was thus a very scientific protective method

which Indians used for millennia. Liquid biofuel is the ethanol. Level of carbon dioxide

have increased from 280 to 385 ppmv since 1750,which is 37 % and this is due to

burning of fossil fuels and still people are drilling oceans to get fossil fuel .While I write

this Arabian sea is being drilled for it at Cochin and no one thinks that we are digging

our own grave in two ways by disturbing the depths of that ocean .Most of Kerala’s

coastlands are below sea level and at or slightly above sea level.

Another thing we can do is protect our tree and grow more forests and trees .

My health village scheme (Music therapy in education, management and administration

Roadworthy publications 2008) is intended for the beginning of it at a local level.

Planting nutritious fruit trees of the local varieties in each home and school and roadside

and helping forestation and protection of biodiversity by social co-operation etc are

possible by us without any Government help. Only when it is a policy decision we need

approach a politician/Government agency for help. Self help is the best help.

In 100 ways to change the world Johan Tell says call the politician as first and last (1 and

100).The reason is ,we have no power to make policies and we can say that such and such

are the problems and such and such policies would help the nation. If he is committed

and if what you point out is for the benefit of all your ideas may be put into policy

decisions and you can help the world. That is the first .If even after several calls and

requests for help ,he doesn’t heed ,the 100th (the last)call is to tell him that we are

withdrawing our support and vote for you and that will do the trick.( 100 ways to save the

world. Johan Tell. Bonnier books 2007)

The deforestation had been due to the following reasons in Europe.

1cattle ranching because of Europe’s appetite for processed meat.

2.Activity of farmers encouraged by state to settle in forestlands and the slash and burn

agriculture.

3.fires,mining,road and railway construction

4.logging ,legal and illegal

5.large scale commercial agriculture as livestock food sources and estates etc which are

monocultures and the biodiverse forests are destroyed for this economic activity which is

short-lived.

About 117000 sq KM of rainforest is destroyed each year and rainforest cover on globe is

now only 5 % and the carbon dioxide level is more because of this.

The CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions of each country is assessed.USA is the first and

the worst polluter .Second is China and third is EU.The order is as follows with India in

5th place.

USA

China

EU

Russia

India

Japan

Germany

Brazil

Canada

Uk

Greenhouse gas emission including land use change is as follows:

USA

EU

China

Indonesia

Brazil

Russian federation

India

Japan

Germany

Malayasia

(UK is 13th)

So all of share the responsibility for killing our own earth and our own life on it.

The warming of climate ,the global rise in sea level and co2 increase etc are more after

1950 and scientists have found that man and his greed alone is responsible for this.

Sealevel rising

IPCC third assessment report predicted that by 2100 the rise will by 9-28 cms .NASA

reports a sea level rise on average 3 mm every year between 1993 and 2005.That is 3.6

cms over 12 years. In 1961-2003 over 43 yrs the rise was only 7.46 cms .Oceans rise

when there is thermal expansion. Warm water takes more space. second reason is melting

of ice and glacier by global warming. The third cause is reduction in salinity as more

freshwater added by melting ice. Freshwater is less dense and takes more space than

salinewater.Apart from the entire coast of kerala the other major cities endangered by

rising sea level Are

Tokyo

Shanghai

Hongkong

Mumbai

Calcutta

Buenos Aires

St Petersburg

New York

Miami

London

Many small islands in Indian and Pacific ocean ,like the Maldives, Carteret island in

Pacific (which will be the first to be lost)By 2015 this island with its 2500 inhabitants

will be lost forever is the prediction(pp96 The A-Z of global warming Simon J

Rosser.Schmaall world publishing 1988).

How do you think the Indian astronomers knew the cyclical nature of climate and the

great world cycles of yuga ,kalpa etc? Simply by experience and observation and

deduction they have known the eccentricity of earths orbit around sun and the perihelion

at Makaram 1st and aphelion on Karkitakam 1st.(Now the West place it on 3rd January and

4th July based on the region of Greenwich)The earth is close to sun in summer of

southern hemisphere and winter in northern hemisphere. It is farthest from sun when the

northern hemisphere has its summer and southern has its winter. The tilt of earths axis

between 22.1 to 24.5 degree (currently 23.5) on its orbital plane cause cycle of 40000

years .Now the tilt is becoming more upright from 23.5 to 22.1 and there is a climate

change. The tilt causes the seasons tilt greater, severe warmer summer and cooler winters.

Less tilt, cooler summer and milder winter When cooler summers happen ice mass

formed. Ice has reflective surface and reflects sun’s energy back to space keeping

temperatures in poles cool. If the Greenland ice melts completely the sea level will raise

by 4.5 to 6 meters .Precession of equinox is the earths wobble around its axis and has a

cycle of 26000 yrs.The perihelion and aphelion then changes completely. Now the

southern hemisphere is tilted towards sun at its perihelion (Makaram or Utharaayana)but

by 26000 years this will reverse. This is called ayanaamsa by Indian astronomers and

precision of equinox by the west.

The ocean thermo hyaline circulation(OTH) is the ocean conveyor belt ,meridianal

overturning circulation(MOC) and these are terms used for a system of large currents that

bring warmer water from equator to northern hemisphere and returns colder water back to

equator. It depends both on temperature and the salt and hence the name. London is 51

.30 degree north of equator as Saskatoon in Canada. Saskatoon is covered by ice about 5

months of year during winter. Glasgow and Hudson bay in Canada are in same

latitude, and the moderate climate of Europe is maintained by the warm drifts from

equator. The transport of ocean nutrients for marine life also is due to OTH.OTH drives

the north Atlantic drift while winds drive the gulf stream .(That is why people around the

equator knew the monsoon and the ocean currents and the west did not know it)..The

currents are affected by the global warming as it has slowed by 30 % though it is within

natural variability of changes.

Earth’s population growth

Current 6,500,000,000

20 yrs ago 4,000,000,000

BY 2050 expected 9,000,000,000

This contribute to global warming, energy needs, food consumption, more of fossil fuel

pollution, a vicious cycle .Water, food and climate ,will be problems for the entire life on

earth.

Billions of people in 1830 was 1.

1930. 2

1960 it was 3,

1975 became 4.

1987 5

2007 6.5

By 2050 expected 9.(credit population institute figures)

Unless we use renewable energy to substitute the fossil fuel we may not be able to break

the vicious circle,

The renewable energy is that can be regenerated

1.solar power(Akkaasa)

2.wind power(Vaayu)

3.hydropower(aapas) which includes hydroelectric, tidal and wave powers

4.geothermal(agni) from heat of earth.

5.biomass (prithwi)

These are the five elemental powers which can be regenerated by recycling.

Nuclear power does not produce greenhouse gases .Therefore some nations are thinking

about it as alternative.

The ancient astronomers of India were aware of a 11 yr cycle of sun and an increased

magnetic and sunspot activity called the ucha or maximum of the sun and then a manda

or minimum period of quiescence. With sunspots the sun activity is maximum .The last

solar maximum was in 2000-2002.Helioseismology is an ultrasound technique for the

sun’s body. The NASA with it predicted the suns next solar cycle to begin in 2007 -2008

and 30-50 % increase than the current cycle with a peak in 2012 (cycle 24).The solar

radiation is not the reason for global warming but anthropogenic forces(manmade)are the

cause has been proved. Temperatures of last 1000 years remaining constant and from

1800 a sharp upward rise is the evidence for it. The 1990’s were the warmest decade and

1998 the warmest year. For last 150 years man has created this problem.

2005 and 2007 were hottest like 1998,and even more and 2002.2003,2006 were very hot.

Global warming increases mosquitoes, pathogens like malaria and mosquitoes can

survive in a wide area and higher altitudes with warm temperatures. A population of 40-

60000000 in Africa will be prone to vector-transmitted malaria with a temperature rise of

2 centigrade.

Weather changes like heatwaves,floods,droughts and hurricanes are due to global

warming. In 2003 before tsunami Europe had heat wave that killed 35000 people.15000

were in Paris alone. August 2007 terrible fires raged Greece. June 2007 floods and rains

in north of England happened .Danube, Rhine and Rhone overflowed. Increased rain in

northern hemisphere and reduced rain in the tropics and subtropics happened.

Droughts in Australia,USA,(California)and Mississippi are having effects of

drought. May 2007 saw drought in Australia .Queensland and Sydney are under threat.

A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system that has a cyclonic surface wind circulation. If

it occurs in North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific ocean it is called a hurricane. In

Northwest Pacific, to the east of 160 degree longitude it is called a typhoon. It is called a

cyclone in Southwest Pacific ocean and North and Southwest Indian ocean. Data from

1851 is available and from 1944 are with aircraft monitoring and from 1970 it is with

satellites. There were five or more hurricanes over four years in 1950s ,three different

years in 1960s,and 1990s and over two years till 2000,but 2004 saw six major hurricanes

and 2005 saw seven.2006 was quieter with two major hurricanes.2007 had 13-16 named

storms,7-9 hurricanes ,3-5 major hurricanes.

The most active was 2005.28 named storms ,15 were hurricanes,7 of them major. This

beat record of 1969 with 12 hurricanes ,5 of which were major. In 1950 eleven hurricanes

,eight of which were major.50s 60s and 90s were active hurricane periods.1995-1999 a

record thirty-three hurricanes recorded.1991-1994 was the quietest after the 1940s.Atlantic

hurricanes alternates between quiet and active period of activity over 20-25 yr

periods. Typhoons increased since 1980s after a decrease in activity from 1960-80.The

activity cycle is thus similar to Atlantic hurricanes. When there is ocean warming

hurricanes become stronger. The destructive power of hurricanes has increased since mid

1970s when there was rapid increase in the global ocean and land temperatures. Just after

the tsunami of 2004 there had been a record year of hurricanes in North Atlantic with 27

named storms ,7 major, and four reaching category five status.

Category 5 storms of 2005:-

Emily hit Mexico in 18th July 2005

Katrina developed in August and made landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi ,of category

3 strength

Rita developed in September 2005 ,close to Florida on 20th,causing storm-force winds

upto 76 mph on Key west. It strengthened and tracked to Mexico and reached category

status with 175 mph

Wilma arrived in October and produced 60 inches rain passing over Yucatan peninsula in

Mexico and made landfall in Florida as category 3 storm

In 2007 the hurricane Dean damaged Jamaica as it made its way to Mexico.

We have altered the weather and water cycles and caused the extinction of biodiversity

on face of earth and are heading for our own extinction by own deeds.

Animals under threat are the polar bear, sea turtles,whales,giant panda,orang-

utan,elephant,tigers,birds of different varieties,pikas a small hamster sized

flower gathering mammal in Alpines of western USA ,SW Canada and Asia.varietes of

frogs including the golden frog of costa Rica,penguins,coral reefs with several symbiotic

organisms depending upon them. We will soon have the same fate as these forms of life.

What we can do?

1.turn off all electrical appliances when they are not in use-the phone

chargers,TV,DVD,which take 10 -60% of normal power even when in standby. Make sure

that the plugs are easily accessible to turn off easily.

2.Standby buster and energy tracker. Turn off the appliance with remote handset .The

equipment functions via radio waves and have a playback time of 6 months. It measures

your energy consumption and allow you to monitor the power consumption.

3.Buy energy –efficient appliances Don’t keep the fridge near a cooker so that it takes

more energy to keep cool.

4.Turn off lights when it is not needed.

5.Boil water that is just enough for use.

6.Turn down household thermostat down 1 degree centigrade to reduce carbon blueprint

and to save money

7.Use solar energy whenever possible

8.Insulate properly to prevent heat loss

9.Take a shower .It use less energy than a bath in bathtub

10.Recycle rubbish to reduce energy requirements. Like the

wastes,paper,cardboard,tin,aluminium cans ,glass bottles and jars and plastic cans .UK is

doing this (www.recyclenow.com)

11.Use green energy.

12.carbon free travel and holiday.(vacation)

Reduce the carbon dioxide emission offsets to zero.

The golden standard of a Clean development mechanism(CDM) is the objectives of the

Kyoto protocol. Keep the planet clean,pure,lessen the greenhouse gases, and keep it cool

and safe for life to continue as before. In the book Flexibility in climate policy Tim

Jackson, Katie beg and Stuart Parkinson has described how to make the Kyoto

mechanisms work the joint implementation(JI) its objectives ,social and environmental

aspects ,methodology and case study research. The many project case studies using

biomass and wind energy are interesting and we should be thinking in those lines and

using less of fossil fuels. This is the only way to do away with the havoc caused by the

Industrial revolution on the globe in such a short period.

Conflict scenario from 2010-2030 anticipated –Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall (Oct

2003)
Asia 2010
Border skirmishes and conflicts in Bangladesh,India,China as mass migration occur towards Burma.
2012.regional instability leads Japan to develop force projection capability. USA 2010.
Disagreement with Canada &Mexico over water increase tension.


2012. flood of refugees to southeast US & Mexico from Caribbean islands.
2015
Strategic agreement between Japan& Russia for Siberia &Sakhalin energy resources 2015
European migration to US
2016.conflict with European countries over fishing rights
2018
China intervenes in Kazakhstan to protect pipelines regularly disrupted by rebels 2018
Securing North America ,US forms integrated security alliance with Canada and Mexico


2020
Department of defense manages borders & refugee from Caribbean & Europe




In Europe they reported migration from ``Holland &Germany to Italy &Spain by 2020

and by 2007 itself the low-lying coastal areas of Holland are being evacuated due to

violent storms. Melting of Himalayan glaciers have relocated Tibetans. The rising

sea levels & floods people are migrating. By change in the THC the northern latitudes

including UK will become colder drier and akin to Siberia. Deaths from war, famine

,weather related disasters are predicted by the Pentagon report of Schwartz and

Randall. Riots of internal conflicts in India, South Africa, Indonesia : Elsewhere

Countries exploiting resources of others to feed and care for their own populations

,conflict over water resource in Nile,Danube,Amazon basins,USA &Europe will be

mighty fortresses barring entry to millions of starving people ,Scandinavians will move

south. Africans will move to south Europe. China’s huge population and food needs will

make it more vulnerable.Bengladesa will be uninhabitable due to rising sea level which

will contaminate inland water supplies.( On 25th May 2009 when Aila struck kolkata

and Ganga swelled with its tributaries in sunder bans breaking embankments in 100

spots, and 24 pargannas bore the brunt ,and 100 irrigation dams smashed ,inundating

scores of villages at least some might have remembered this prediction!).When fossil

fuel is dangerous to human life on earth, and hydroelectric power is destroyed by lack of

water and destruction of dam reservoirs people think of other measures of energy

sources. The Pentagon report therefore says that Israel,china,India,Pakistan will be

ready to use nuclear arsenals and Japan, south Korea, Egypt and Germany ,in addition to

Iran and north Korea will develop nuclear capability.

The interesting part is that this is not a climatic prediction, but the impact or effects of

climatic changes on various parts of the globe on a regional basis.So,what was wrong in

Varahamihira and his predecessors giving this type of predictions to rulers and people to

be on the look out for problems and solve them before they came ?The west is gradually

adopting the ways of the ancient east, because only now have they got the scientific

knowledge of the weather, of the seas and its relation to human activity.

The role of eclipses and earthquakes due to expansion of water bodies during eclipses

were predicted by Indian astronomers. If we look at the following figures you can see

how the major disasters of earthquakes wiping away populations had occurred on either

new or full moon days.

2001 Gujarat earthquake killing 20000 people on new moon day

Dec 26 in 2004 the famous tsunami on a full moon day.

26th September Japan kurile island earthquake on new moon day.

Dec 26th 2003 new moon day Iran earthquake kills 30000 people.

The European travels to India in 15th to 16th century and the events thereafter was their

study period of the human behavior and knowledge of sciences .It took nearly 400 years

for them to accept it, but by that time, they had altered the entire global weather by the

greed for more power and we have to face the consequences of what we call the great

industrial revolution. We have enjoyed its good effects so far. Now we have to suffer the

bad effects too. For surviving the climatic changes and to avert the catastrophe of

manmade changes to the weather We have to

1 understand the problem of the gravity of the human-made climate change

2.We have to break out of the present impasse.

We include all of us, and the policy makers, opinion formers, the rich, powerful and

influential in corporate business ,academic and scientific institutions and leading

nongovernmental institutions .

I am a music lover. Music integrates everything. And intelligent time measure and design

is part of music, medicine and astronomy all of which I have learnt.Music is creatively

alive and is very precise about counting. Timing and tuning to shared reference points

are fundamental to powers of live music. It has a timeless stability and political relevance
of equality and oneness of everything and a very peaceful eternal dharma of sustenance

of life. All conflicts can be solved with such peaceful intelligent integrating processes.

And if science can make us aware of the dangers of global warming it can find out a way

out of it too. Therefore ,all of us together can solve the problem, if we so desire. If we

survive, it will be by our combined effort. If the civilization and humanity perish it will

be by our shared action of selfishness. What do we want ourselves to do is our own

decision.